2008 - Crisis eRussia futhi emhlabeni, ukuba imiphumela yako iqhubeke umnotho wembulunga yonke. Inkinga yezimali global of 2008: izimbangela nemibandela

Ngo-2008, inhlekelele engalibaleki emhlabeni. Qala zezinkinga sezwe sezimali owaqala ngokuvukela crash stock market. I ukubiya kusukela ngoJanuwari 21 kuya ku-22 ngaso sonke Ukuhwebelana nezinxushunxushu. Igoqiwe zesito hhayi kuphela, kodwa futhi ukuvikeleka kwamasheya ezinkampanini ukuthi zazinjani kahle. ukulahlekelwa Wahlupheka, ngisho izinkampani ezinkulu ezifana "Gazprom" Russian. Ngokushesha ngemva kokuwa akwabelanayo amafutha emakethe izwe yaqala ukuna intengo kawoyela. On the izimakethe isitokwe langena enkathini eyiminyaka ukuntengantenga ukuthi ushiye uphawu enkulu izimakethe lezimpahla. Naphezu kwemizamo zezomnotho ukuze bathethelele isimo (amemezela ngawo obala ushintsho enanini lamahora zesito) January 28, umhlaba wonke wakwazi ukugcina elilandelayo crash stock market.

Njengoba isimo esibucayi kwaqala nini?

Inkinga 2008 ayiqalanga ngo-January 21, nge ukwabelana falling, nomunye 15 ngoJanuwari. Citigroup yasebhange iqembu eqoshiwe nokuncipha inzuzo, owawungumnyaka umfutho main zokunciphisa ukubaluleka ukwabelana ku-New York Stock Exchange. Wathatha indawo izenzakalo ezilandelayo:

• I-Dow Jones Inkomba yawela 2.2%.

• Standard & Abampofu sika - 2,51%.

• Nasdaq Composite - 2,45%.

Kuphela emva kwezinsuku 6 imiphumela izinguquko intengo sizivezile phezu exchange isitokwe futhi yaba nethonya isimo emhlabeni wonke. Iningi abadlali lwemali imakethe ekugcineni wabona ukuthi empeleni, izinkampani eziningi ungazizwa kahle. Ukuze amazinga aphezulu ofeleba, ukuphakama kwenani amasheya esakhiwe ukulahlekelwa ezingamahlalakhona. Ochwepheshe abaningi kwezomnotho emuva ngo-2007 labikezela inhlekelele 2008. Thina wasikisela eyawela nezikhathi ezinzima e-Russia eminyakeni emibili kamuva ngenxa yokuthi emakethe yasekhaya kanye nezinsiza ngeke isiphelile. Ukuze umnotho ubhekene nokuwa global kulindeleke ngesikhathi esifanele sangaphambili.

Lumemezela zezinkinga emhlabeni ngo-2008 kanye nokuthuthukiswa isimo

Inkinga global ka 2008 futhi okungenani waqala ngemva kokuwa Ukuhwebelana isitokwe, kodwa preconditions ngoba ukuvela yayo kwaba okuningi. Wabelana ukuwa kwaba yisixwayiso kuphela ngesimo ngamandla kokushintsha. lezimpahla ukukhiqiza ngokwedlulele kanye olwenzeka abalulekile capital sabhalwa emhlabeni. Exchange ukuntengantenga wabonisa ukuthi lapho khona ezinye izinkinga ukudayiswa kwezimpahla. Ezilimele ngokulandela isixhumanisi ekukhuleni komnotho wezwe isibe sphere zokukhiqiza. izinguquko Global emnothweni, okuyinto ngo-2008 waletha esibucayi kakhulu sakuthinta ngayo ukuphila kwabantu abavamile.

Ukuze umnotho wembulunga besihambisana nesiminyaminya isimo lapho amathuba ezimakethe amathemba besaba namandla okukhala. Naphezu ikhono sandise ukukhiqiza nokutholakala kwezimali ukuze ithole ingeniso ethe isibe eziyinkinga kakhulu. Kakade ngo-2007 kungenzeka ukuba uqaphele le kokuwa imali isigaba sabasebenzi emazweni afana no-US no-UK. izimakethe olugcwele ngokulambisa ukugcina ukwanda kokubili umthengi kanye mortgage obolekisayo. Isimo siphakamisele lapho kuba sobala ukuthi labantu abakwazi ngisho ukukhokha inzalo emalini ebolekwe.

Eyokuqala emlandweni wesintu inhlekelele yembulunga yonke

Esikhathini kusuka 2008 kuya ku-2009, amazwe amaningi ase emhlabeni sibhekene nenhlekelele ezezimali nezomnotho, okwaholela ukuthola isimo lo mkhuba "global". Kukhunjulwe isikhathi eside ka-2008 esibucayi abathintekayo emazweni kosozimali hhayi kuphela, kodwa futhi umnotho uthi post-sezenhlalo. Ingahlehlela Kugcine emhlabeni kuze 2008, ngezinga elikhulu kangaka bawela 1929-1933. Ngaleso sikhathi, izinto zazingahambi kahle ukuze azungeze emadolobheni amakhulu American wakhula nemizana ngamabhokisi, njengoba ingxenye enkulu yomphakathi ngenxa abangasebenzi asikwazanga uvikelekile amaholo abonakalayo. Imininingwane izwe emhlabeni ngamunye likhombe imithelela ngayinye abantu.

Kancane nokuhlalisana kweminotho emhlabeni, ukwencika iningi e-dollar kanye indima global US ezimakethe zomhlaba njengoba umthengi kuye kwaholela yokuthi izinkinga zangaphakathi Melika, "sokuphrinta" ezimpilweni cishe kuwo wonke amazwe. Ngaphandle nethonya 'giant kwezomnotho "kwasala China ne Japan. Inkinga wayengafani umshudo kusukela blue. Isimo iqhakazile kancane kancane futhi ehlelekile. On wokugoqa okungenzeka emnothweni yabonisa ukuthambekela eqinile phezulu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, e-United States phakathi 2007, wakwazi ukwehlisa inani lenzalo at 4,75%. Kuyinto engajwayelekile kwesikhathi ukuzinza, lo mkhuba uye waphawuleka buyout befisa linjalo. Kuthiwa ngobunzima ozayo yokuthi ukusabela emakethe lwemali ukwehlisa amazinga e-United States ngenxa yalokho wayengekho. Kwenzekani kuyiwe obumbi - kungcono nje omunye kusaqalwa esezingeni lo mkhuba. Izinkinga kule nkathi uthi kakade, kodwa kufihlwe futhi ayinawo wazizwa ngokucacile. Uma isikrini iye sigudluke nezwe ukubona isimo sangempela, ukwesaba uqalile. Kwakungekho lutho ukufihla, futhi lokhu kwaholela ukuwa kwezomnotho emazweni amaningi.

Umkhankaso ka-2008 ngeni yezimali emhlabeni wonke

I izici eziyinhloko kokuntengantenga nasemiphumeleni yaso kukhona umuntu othile okukhulunywa ngaye jikelele ngoba sezwe ngamunye. Ngesikhathi esifanayo kukhona umehluko obalulekile okuyizinto eziyizici ezweni ngalinye. Ngokwesibonelo, waba ukwanda okukhulu GDP sabhalwa ngo 9 lamazwe emhlabeni 25. EChina, lesi sibalo sakhuphuka ngamaphesenti 8.7%, kanti e-India - 1.7%. Uma sicabangela emazweni post-Soviet, omkhiqizo yaqhubeka iba ngcono e-Azerbaijan eBelarus, Kazakhstan futhi Kyrgyzstan. I World Bank igxile yokuthi inhlekelele 2008 kwaholela ekutheni izikhulu zibonise iconsi jikelele e-GDP ngonyaka wezi-2009 2.2% emhlabeni. Emazweni athuthukile, babengamaphesenti 3.3%. Emazweni asathuthuka namazwe kanye izimakethe abasafufusa kungekho ukwehla uyalandelwa, kanye nokukhula, nakuba ingenkulu,% 1.2 kuphela.

Ukujula ukuwa e-GDP kwaba ngokuphongoza kuye ngezimo zezwe ngalinye. Igalelo enkulu beza e-Ukraine (okuya kwaba 15.2%) kanye neRussia yama (7.9%). Lokhu kuye kwabangela ukwehla ukuncintisana jikelele lamazwe ezimakethe zomhlaba. Ukraine neRussia, ababethembela okwesikhathi emakethe amabutho self-elawula bebhekana nemiphumela ebuhlungu ngaphezulu imvelo nesimo sakhe sezomnotho. States ukuthi babekhetha ukugcina iqembu, noma isikhundla oqinile emnothweni, wahlupheka "ukuntengantenga kwezomnotho" kalula. Lona-China ne-India, Brazil Belarus, Poland. Inkinga yokungabi 2008 futhi okungenani wammisela ezithile ngasinye amazwe emhlabeni, kodwa kuzo zonke izindawo lapho kwadingeka amandla akhe isakhiwo ngabanye.

Ukuntengantenga kwesimo somnotho emhlabeni eRussia: ekuqaleni

Izimbangela 2008 Inkinga iRussia yayinabantu imvelo yangaphandle kuphela, kodwa futhi yangaphakathi. Donsa ingubo kusukela ngaphansi kwezinyawo uthi inkulu ukwehla kwamanani kawoyela kanye nezinsimbi. Ngaphansi igalelo Sasikhululwe hhayi kuphela umkhakha. Kuyaphawuleka kwayibhebhethekisa isimo ngenxa zezimali ongaphakeme supply imali yezwe. Inkinga yaqala ngo-2007, ngesikhathi kusuka September kuya ku-October. Lokhu kwaba uphawu olucacile yokuthi imali emabhange Russian isiyadlula. Demand phakathi izakhamuzi ukuthola imali-mboleko yendlu ngezinye izikhathi kudlulwe supply kuyatholakala. Inkinga yokungabi 2008 eRussia kwaphawulwa yokuthi izikhungo zezimali zasekhaya waqala ukuboleka imali phesheya isithakazelo. Kulokhu, Central Bank of Russia ezihlongozwayo izinga 10% ngoba refinancing. Kakade ngawo-August 1, 2008 ubukhulu izikweletu zangaphandle yezwe zaba 527 dollar ayizigidi eziyinkulungwane. Nge nokuqala kwezinkinga zokuwa komnotho emhlabeni jikelele, kokuwa nyaka, abantu basemazweni aseNtshonalanga phezu isimo saphela finance Russia.

Inkinga eyinhloko Russia - the zezimali imali

Ukuze Russia, ke zaba yemali zezimali Inkinga 2008. izizathu olujwayelekile, ezifana iconsi ngamasheya, kuba yesibili. Ngaphandle kokukhula komnotho okwenzeke ngonyaka we yemali ruble isisindo iminyaka 10 ngesikhathi 35-60%, lwemali ayizange ukuqiniswa. Lapho inhlekelele yembulunga yonke ka 2008 kuphela kuzokwenzeka, okuholela amazwe aseNtshonalanga engimbumbile ngesikhathi isimo ezithile izindaba. Ngakho, $ 100 GDP isimo ngasinye oluhambisana engengaphansi kwengu-250-300 USD amafa yebhange. Ngamanye amazwi, ama-asethi ingqikithi amabhange ezikhathini 2.5-3 ephakeme ukwedlula inani GDP. I isilinganiso 3 kuya ku-1 kwenza isakhiwo sezimali ngayinye uthi esitalini abagcinanga nje yezinguquko zangaphandle, kodwa kwangaphakathi. ERussia, lapho kunezinkinga zemali waqala ngo-2008, ama-ruble angu-100 we-GDP zaba ruble amafa akukho kuka 70-80. Lena okuncane okumayelana 20-30% kunanoma imali supply GDP. Lokhu kwaholela ekulahlekelweni cishe yonke impahla ibe yimali kohlelo yasebhange in uhulumeni, amabhange wayeka obolekisayo. A-glitch elincane ukusebenza umnotho womhlaba zathiya impilo yezwe lonke. Isimo kuleli zwe, owanikhipha inhlekelele 2008 igcwele ukuphindaphinda nje kazwelonke inkinga lwemali zezimali ngeke kususwe ngokuphelele.

Central Bank of Russia ngokwayo ombangela obumbi

Inkinga yokungabi 2008 eRussia kwenzeke ngezinga elithé xaxa ngenxa izici yangaphakathi. ithonya kwangaphandle kuphela anda ekuhlehleni kuleli zwe. Ngesikhathi lapho Central Bank wanquma ukukhulisa nesithakazelo rates, kwehle kakhulu ezingeni ukukhiqiza. Isibalo ishintshela emkhakheni yangempela ngisho nangaphambi okwamanje usathi phakathi 2% wabonakaliswa inhlekelele 2008. Ekupheleni kuka-2008, Central Bank kwandisa refinancing izinga ku-13%. Esikhathini izinhlelo ke kwadingeka ukulinganisela ukunikezela funa. Empeleni lokhu kuye kwaholela ukwanda izindleko imali ngoba amancane, aphakathi nendawo kanye ibhizinisi yangasese (18-24%). Ukubolekwa kwemali ziye zaba bayehluleka ngekwetimali. Inombolo ishintshela liye landa izikhathi ezingu-3 ngenxa ukungakwazi izakhamuzi akhokhe izikweleti amabhange. Ekwindla ka-2009, iphesenti ishintshela kuleli zwe liye landa 10. Waba yini umphumela wesibindi isinqumo inani lenzalo kuye kwaba nokwehla elibukhali amavolumu ukukhiqizwa futhi ephumula inombolo eziningi zamabhizinisi yonkana isimo. Izimbangela 2008 esibucayi, okuyinto ngokwezinga elikhulu ezweni umise ngokwaso, eziye zaholela yokuthi umnotho zigoqiwe zasemazweni asathuthuka nge high zabathengi isidingo kanye nokusebenza kwezomnotho namandla. Ukuze ugweme ngemiphumela nezinxushunxushu somhlaba kuyobangela ephethwe ukumnika block imali isimo emabhange okuthembekile. Ukuwa ezimakethe zamasheya engakakhuli umthelela enjalo ephawulekayo isimo, njengoba umnotho yenkampani has cishe awekho maqondana ukuhweba ezimakethe zamasheya, futhi u-70% amasheya ephethwe yilabo abatshala izimali zakwamanye amazwe.

Izimbangela ubunjalo global kokuntengantenga emhlabeni

Phakathi 2008-2009 esibucayi abathintekayo cishe njalo wemboni womsebenzi we uthi, ikakhulukazi uwoyela, futhi lezo yayihlobene ngokuqondile nokuhlela izinsiza ezimbonini. Akukho mkhuba kwehliselwe, okuyinto selikhule ngempumelelo, kusukela ngo-2000. Amanani Agro-impahla kanye "igolide abamnyama" rose. Izindleko emgqonyeni uwoyela kwafinyelela iqophelo eliphezulu eNkantolo Julayi futhi wayeka kwirekhodi $ 147. Iningi izindleko nentengo uphethiloli neze rose. Nge intengo okwandisa lamafutha wavuka amanani zegolide, ezizenzile aye akha izinsolo batjalimali umphumela okungekuhle lesi simo.

Kwaphela izinyanga 3 intengo kawoyela bawela $ 61. Kusukela ngo-October kuya ku-November, kwakukhona ukwehla okunye emalini $ 10. Ukuwa izindleko fuel kwaba yini imbangela nokwehla indices kanye nezinga ukusetshenziswa. Esikhathini esifanayo, baqala US mortgage esibucayi. Amabhange babenikwa imali kubantu ukuthenga izindlu inani 130% wenani yabo. Ngenxa ekunqabeni emazingeni ekuphila, ababoleka asikwazanga ukuba ikhokhe izikweleti zazo futhi eseduze izikweletu musa abaphila. Imali yezakhamuzi US nje kwaphela phambi kwamehlo ethu. Umthelela wale 2008 Inkinga kwashiya izibazi abaningi baseMelika.

Sasiyini 'iconsi "zokugcina?

Ngaphezu lezi zenzakalo ezichazwe ngenhla, isimo washiya uphawu ezinye izinto ezenzeka emhlabeni esikhathini sangaphambi crisis. Ngokwesibonelo, ungakwazi ukukhumbula nezindleko angalungile kusho abadayisi njalo eyodwa lamabhange ngobukhulu French Societe Generale. UJerome Karvel hhayi kuphela ehlelekile bankrupted inkampani, kusobala ukuthi wabonisa umphakathi wonke amaphutha umsebenzi izinhlangano ngobukhulu zezimali. Lesi simo kwabonisa ngokucacile ukuthi khulula abahwebi njalo ungakwazi ukuphatha imithombo izinkampani ukuthi waqasha kubo. Lokhu kwavusa crisis 2008. Izizathu izimo ezihlobene mbhoshongo zezimali Bernard Madoff, okuyinto yaqinisa mkhuba ongathandeki index global lamasheya.

Yashubisa kunezinkinga zemali lembulunga yonke elinezinto ezinhlobonhlobo 2008 agflation. Lona waba ukwanda okukhulu kwezincwadi amanani kwemikhiqizo yezolimo. Price Index FAO ehlelekile lenyuka phakathi global stock market ukwehla. Ubuningi isiqongo Inkomba kufinyelelwa 2011. Izinkampani emhlabeni wonke ngomzamo ngandlela-thile ngcono isimo sawo baqala ukuhlala for ukuthenga okuyingozi kakhulu ukuthi ekugcineni waletha ukulahlekelwa okukhulu. Kungashiwo ukunciphisa ivolumu ukuthenga imikhiqizo yezimoto. Demand yawela 16%. EMelika, babengamaphesenti - 26%, okwaphumela ekuncipheni isidingo imikhiqizo steel kanye nezinye izimboni ezihambelana.

Isinyathelo sokugcina sisendleleni eya nezinxushunxushu kwaba ukwanda Libor izinga eMelika. Lesi senzakalo senzeka mayelana nesigameko cheapening dollar esikhathini kusuka 2002 kuya 2008 Inkinga iwukuthi ngezinye esiqongweni emnothweni kanye nentuthuko yayo Liyindawo okusheshayo hhayi ningi than kuyoba ukucabanga mayelana esikhundleni dollar.

Umthelela wale 2008 esibucayi emnothweni womhlaba

Umnotho wezwe ngezikhathi ezithile futhi kuncike ube nezikhathi ezinzima nezimnandi. Kukhona emlandweni izenzakalo ukushintsha isiqondiso zokuphila kwezomnotho. Inkinga yezimali 2008 ngokugcwele waphenduka yesimo sezomnotho emhlabeni wonke. Uma ubheka isimo jikelele, umnotho womhlaba ngemuva nezinxushunxushu isibe iyunifomu ngaphezulu. Ulwa emazweni anezimboni, okuye kwanciphisa esikhathini zokucindezeleka, walulama cishe ngokuphelele. Lokhu kwenza ukuba ngesikhathi esisodwa alungise ukuthuthukiswa imboni izwe emazweni zama-Capitalist. A Ukwanda okuphawulekayo kokuthandwa livele emazweni ukuthi usanda kuqala ukuthuthukisa. Kubo, ukucindezeleka, izwe lingakabikho ithuba eliyingqayizivele ibone amakhono ayo ezimakethe zomhlaba. Ukuba ongesona isihlobo ngqo ezimakethe zamasheya bese dollar exchange rate, emazweni ampofu akudingeki ukubhekana nesimo. Baphenduka amandla abo ukuthuthukiswa yayo nokuchuma.

izikhungo isitoreji babe e-US, i-EU ne-UK, okwaholela ukunwetshwa ezimbonini. isakhi kwetheknoloji baqala ukuba ngcono, ukuthi uyaqhubeka namuhla. Amazwe amaningi aye elibuyekeziwe izinqubomgomo zabo, esangenza yokwakha umnotho eyizingqabavu lekusasa. Kwamanye amazwe, obumbi uye waba nemiphumela olubabazeka kakhulu omuhle. Ngokwesibonelo, emazweni uchitheke ngezimali zangaphandle ngokuqondene isimo emhlabeni ithuba izimilo umsebenzi emnothweni wakuleli. Kwesobunxele ngaphandle supply impahla kusukela ngaphandle, uHulumeni kumele uthele isabelomali ezilinganisweni emkhakheni yasekhaya, ngaphandle okuyinto akunakwenzeka ukuqinisekisa izinga eliphansi kunawo wonke induduzo impilo yezakhamuzi. Ngakho, isiqondiso umnotho, okuyinto wayeke wasala ngaphandle zone ithonya, namuhla zishintshe.

Kangakanani isimo ngo-2015, usalokhu uyimfihlakalo. Abanye osomnotho abakholelwa ukuthi isimo samanje emhlabeni - uhlobo echo lenkinga 2008, omunye ezimibalabala kodwa iqhakazile e yonke inkazimulo yayo imiphumela yokucindezeleka emhlabeni. Isimo okusikhumbuza 2008 crisis. Izizathu bukhomba:

• ukunqabela enanini emgqonyeni lamafutha;
• ukukhiqiza ngokwedlulele;
• ukwanda izinga lokungasebenzi emhlabeni;
• Rouble ukwehla okuyoba inhlekelele zezimali;
• iconsi okungavamile gapped Dow Jones Inkomba kanye S & P.

Ngokusho abahlaziyi, isimo ngeke ziya ziba zimbi kakhulu.