Uwoyela Iranian emakethe. Ikhwalithi uwoyela Iranian. Lapho Iran uyabanikeza uwoyela

Ukususwa lwezijeziso international ngokumelene Iran, wanezela omunye umthombo supply hydrocarbon, intengo okuyinto vele kakhulu. emakethe Iranian uwoyela kungasho kuye, kanye zikawoyela ngamazwe nezikazwelonke ezisebenza eMpumalanga Ephakathi?

ezingaba Iran

1976 kwabe kungunyaka kangcono embonini kawoyela wezwe. Amafutha Iranian stably ezithwalwa inani 6 million imiphongolo ngosuku, futhi ngo-November walowo nyaka, lesi sibalo safinyelela engakaze ibonwe 6.68 million. Ngaleso sikhathi, i-Saudi kuphela Arabia, iSoviet Union ne-United States abangu abakhiqizi ezinkulu.

Revolution balandela ke, futhi kule minyaka engu-35 edlule, amafutha Iran neze ekhishwe okweqa two-thirds esiqongweni maphakathi nawo-70s (Nokho indima esemqoka ukuthi eyadlalwa igesi), naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi zigcine zegolide abamnyama kuleli zwe ngaphezu kwezinsuku zokugcina 15 iminyaka kukhuphuke ngo-cishe u-70% - iphakeme kakhulu kunanoma nomakhelwane bayo esikhathini esifanayo.

Noma kunjalo, lesi sigameko zeminyaka 1970 namanje isikhumbuzo esinamandla lokho ongakwenza embonini kawoyela-Iran kulandela bephakamisa unswinyo.

izinyathelo ngempumelelo

United States unswinyo ukuthi European Union kanye ne-United Nations onikezwe lizwe kusukela ngonyaka ka-2011, zabangela ukuncipha okuphawulekayo umkhiqizo kawoyela e-Iran. Abakwazanga ukuvala ngokuphelele izimakethe zomhlaba, njengoba ezinye abathengi main - China, India, eJapane, eNingizimu Korea Turkey - baqhubeka ukuthenga lemiqulu emikhulu uwoyela Iranian.

Noma kunjalo, umthelela unswinyo bekulokhu abalulekile. Ikakhulukazi, imingcele sina ubuchwepheshe ukungenisa sekubangele Ukuwohloka isimo lobuchwepheshe zokukhiqiza izindawo, okuyinto futhi inciphise izinga lamafutha Iranian. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukukhulisa yokuvinjelwa EU umshwalense ngamaloli labeka imingcele eqinile bezikhali ukuthekelisa yezwe, njengoba abangaphezu kuka-90% emhlabeni jikelele umshwalense ngamaloli imikhumbi kulawulwa Umthetho wase-Europe.

Isiphetho kwaba nokuncipha okukhulu ekukhiqizeni hydrocarbon, ikakhulukazi ngenxa izitobhi unscheduled nge ukulahlekelwa ingqikithi 18 kuya ku-20% we-okukhipha engaba kusukela esethulweni lwezijeziso ngo-2011. Unswinyo olubhekiswe Iranian umkhiqizo kawoyela cut million 0.8 b / d - isibalo okuyinto manje kubuyela emakethe.

Lapho uwoyela Iranian uthola umthengi?

Ngemva kokususa imingcele ngoJanuwari, ngokusho kwezibalo olusemthethweni, Iran ithengiswe ezine ngamaloli (4 million imiphongolo) e-Europe, kuhlanganise French obuphelele, iSpanishi, kanye Russian Cepsa Litasco. Lokhu okulingana no-5 kuphela izinsuku yokuthengisa ezingeni afika ku 2012, lapho abathengi European ngomkhumbi ayizinkulungwane 800. Barrel ngosuku. wangaphambili amakhasimende ezinkulu Abaningi, kuhlanganise i-Anglo-Dutch of Shell, Eni sika isiNtaliyane, isi-Greek Hellenic Petroleum and ukuhweba endlini Vitol, Glencore futhi Trafigura, isazoba ukusebenza kuzoqala. Ukungabikho dollar nemizana kanye indlela emisiwe ekuthengisweni kwezinye zezimali, kanye ukwenqena amabhange ukunikeza izinhlamvu credit babe izithiyo main emva bephakamisa unswinyo.

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, abantu ababekade abathengi ezinkulu zokungazimiseli ezinye Tehran sika ukuze kuxazululeke izimo yayo ukudayiswa eminyakeni emine edlule futhi sizivumelanise nezimo ngaphezulu izintengo, naphezu ngokweqile ukunikezela phezu okufunekayo inani ekuthatheni Saudi Arabia Iran European emakethe, Russia nase-Iraq.

Amathemba 2016

Nge usuku lusondela bephakamisa unswinyo eziphethe imakethe yomhlaba wonke lamafutha wenza izinto zizoshintsha bearish, kuyilapho amanani wawa ngo-25% esikhathini kusuka ngoJuni kuze Agasti 2015. Ngesikhathi esifanayo lo NYMEX, ikusasa namanje ukhombe ekusimameni ezithambile, kanye ezinye izinhlangano zomhlaba wabikezela e July no-August 2015 bona uhlaliseke ngezithuba $ 45-65 umphongolo, efana range intengo esikhathini kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya-July 2015

I yesikhathi esizayo ukunyakaza uwoyela emakethe ixhomeke kangakanani futhi ngokushesha kangakanani kuzokhulisa zokuthumela uwoyela Iranian ngemva bephakamisa unswinyo. Kukhona imibono emibili eyisisekelo kule ukwanda ezingaba khona.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngokwe-International Energy Agency (i-EIA), Iran unakho ukwandisa umthamo ukukhiqizwa ecishe ibe yizinkulungwane 800. Barrel ngelanga, yesibili Saudi Arabia. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngokuvumelana izibikezelo-EIA, ngemva bephakamisa unswinyo ekuqaleni kuka-2016 ukunikezelwa uwoyela Iranian ongahluziwe ngonyaka ngokwesilinganiso ukwandisa by ayizinkulungwane 300. Barrel ngosuku.

Isizathu esiyinhloko ezifana izilinganiso disparate itholakala lokuthi ukuthi elishiwo lapha lenza isisindo xaxa ukuze umphumela kweminyaka eminingana imikhawulo Ukuwohloka ingqalasizinda okumba Islamic Republic, okuyinto manje badinga isikhathi esithile ukuze iba namandla ukukhiqizwa. Ekugcineni, kusukela maphakathi 2012 ngenxa izitobhi engahlelelwe uwoyela Iranian kancane kancane kwaqala ukukhiqizwa at esingaphansi 600-800 eziyinkulungwane. Barrel ngosuku.

Indlela efanele kukhona lezi izilinganiso ukukhiqizwa for the emakethe yesimanje emhlabeni igolide elimnyama? Ukwenyuka ka Barrel ayizinkulungwane 800. Ngelanga imayelana 1% wenani yamafutha ezweni lanamuhla, okungase anele okushintshako enanini endaweni yokuncintisana, kodwa hhayi ngenxa glut emakethe. Ngaphezu kwakho konke, in the medium futhi lwesikhathi eside hydrocarbon amanani, njengoba umthetho, bavame nokulinganisa ukuze izindleko zokukhiqiza umgqomo lokugcina funa nokwanelisayo. Yesikhathi eside uwoyela eziphansi kuvimbela utshalomali ekuthuthukiseni imali ezibizayo; ekugcineni, ivaliwe kahle, kanye supply kuyehla. Uma intengo kunqoba umkhawulo, ukutshalwa kwezimali entsha ukuletha ezengeziwe, imithombo ezibizayo ngaphezulu hydrocarbon.

Kulesisimo-ke, maqondana uwoyela izingcaphuno shift ngo-2014, imakethe wanamhlanje ingazweli ijika value (kusukela ngentuthuko eqolo kakade inzuzo). Ngakho, umthombo elincane izimpahla eshibhile kuyoba nethonya ingasaphathwa kunani kuka ezindaweni nokhahlo maphakathi 2014.

Ngenxa yalokho, imodeli uwoyela emakethe kusikisela ukuthi Iran kumele akwazi ukwandisa umkhiqizo i eyengeziwe Barrel ayizinkulungwane 800. Ngosuku ngo-2016. Quotes of Brent ngo-2016 kungenzeka kuqhubeke ukuba uhla $ 45-65 umphongolo, okuyinto uhambisane ephasishi intengo, bekulokhu kuyaqhubeka-2015.

Kuzokwenzekani eminyakeni 3-5?

Nokho, esikhathini eside, umthelela ukubuya Iran kungenzeka ebalulekile. Eminyakeni embalwa edlule esiye sakubona negagasi yokuvela kwezinto ezintsha lingaphezulu kakhulu ukudlula izinga isilinganiso eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Leli zwe ngeke ukwazi ukusebenzisa ngokugcwele lezi reserves ngenxa ukufinyelela okunomkhawulo ukugeleza sangaphandle ubuchwepheshe kanye namakhono. Ngenxa yalokho, akukhona nje kuphela yawela kawoyela ongahluziwe, kodwa futhi ukufakazela ezingeni reserves likhulu kunawo wonke emlandweni wezwe. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, amazinga samanje ukukhiqizwa kwase akukafiki ezingeni Ukusabalala kwezindleko yomphakathi.

Lokhu, kanye neqiniso lokuthi Iran (ngokungafani Kuwait, Saudi Arabia kanye UAE) akanayo utshalomali eyanele Isikhwama isinxephezelo ukungeneli kwesabelo sezimali. Lokhu kusho ukuthi amafutha e-Iran luyothunyelw bathola okungaphezu kwalokho, kuyobe incike ekhonweni uhulumeni ukuthi usebenzise ubuchwepheshe nolwazi oludingekayo.

I zokulawula nohlaka olubhekele Islamic Republic nakho kuyinkinga enkulu ezinkampanini zamazwe angaphandle abafisa ukutshala imali futhi wazi-njani ku amandla wemboni yezwe. umthethosisekelo Iran wenqabela abantu bangaphandle noma yangasese ngokusimama kwezinsiza zemvelo, futhi zokukhiqiza nokwabelana sivumelwano kunqatshelwe ngokomthetho. MNCs nezinye zimali angaphandle Uvunyelwe ukuba iqhaza ukuhlola ukukhiqizwa izinkontileka ngokusebenzisa kabusha. Lezi izivumelwano, eqinisweni, okulingana izivumelwano ukuhlinzekwa kwezinsizakalo, okuvumela zimali angaphandle ukuhlola nokuthuthukisa hydrocarbon Amasimu, inqobo nje ngemva ukukhiqizwa isiqalo, ukulawula ibuyisela neNational Iranian Oil Company noma omunye izinkampani zayo esebenzisana nayo ukuthi angabe esethenga amalungelo ngoba intengo kusengaphambili. Ngo-2014, i-Ministry of Oil Iran umemezele izinhlelo zokwethula okubizwa ngokuthi izinkontileka esihlanganisiwe uwoyela (i-IPC), okuyinto ukwenza njenge ukwaziswa okumayelana nesisebenzisana nabo noma PSA nge isikhathi engaba iminyaka engu-20 kuya ku-25 (isikhathi eside ngokuphindwe kabili isikhathi lokuyihlenga izinkontileka). Uma lolu hlobo olusha sivumelwano bazovunyelwa umthetho, ukukhanga wezwe njengoba yindawo investimenti MNCs nabanye abadlali ngamazwe luyokhula kakhulu futhi ukuphuthumisa ukuthuthukiswa hydrocarbon izinqolobane.

Amathemba dolobha ukutshalwa kwezimali

Ngokokunye ukulinganisela, ukutshalwa kwezimali entsha kungase kwandise uwoyela ukuhlola ukukhiqizwa e-Iran ngo-6% ngonyaka eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo (okuyinto liyalingana izinga lokukhula Iraq eminyakeni embalwa edlule), uma kuqhathaniswa nabangu ababalelwa ezigidini 1.4% umkhiqizo kawoyela Middle East jikelele. Kulesi simo, zikwenze uzitshele ukuthi ukufunwa izohlala injalo, intengo kawoyela zingahluka phakathi $ 60-80 umphongolo ngo-2020, ngesikhathi engekho yalezi zenzakalo, ezinye izinto ukuba alingane, izindleko kungaba 10-15% ngenhla.

Kulesi uhla amanani, lo ukutshalwa kwezimali ngokuba zifakwe nge izindleko ephakeme, ezifana oluthambile, sandstone noma eshalofini, ayoba mancane amathuba okwenza ukubuyela amazinga ngaphambi 2014. Nakuba ukukhiqizwa Kufanele ziqhubeke nje izindleko umkhiqizo kawoyela ziphansi ngokwanele ukuba bathethelele izindleko , ukukhathala okusheshayo emithonjeni efana kuzonciphisa value abo (oluthambile emithonjeni, ngokukhethekile, njengoba umthetho, nika 80% noma ngaphezulu kule yokuqala eminyakeni 3-5). Kulezi izimo, isivuno uwoyela Iranian emakethe amavolumu eyengeziwe hit sezimayini oluthambile e-United States, futhi kancane kancane emasimini sogu lolwandle e amazwekazi aseNyakatho naseNingizimu Melika, e-Asia, e-Afrika kanye neMpumalanga Ekude yeRussia. A ukukhathala okusheshayo North Sea ezifakwa kuzoholela esikhundleni sabo ngu umkhiqizo wawanda e-Iran engase kwamanye amazwe, njenge-Iraq kanye Libya.

uwoyela Iranian neRussia

ikhwalithi embi Russian grade amafutha ngoba Urals, enikeziwe eMpumalanga Yurophu, unokukhathazeka elandayo labathengi, ukuthi kuholela inzuzo kusebenziswe futhi ukulahlekelwa kwezimali zawo ukuwa. Ngakho, okuqukethwe nesibabule enikeziwe ngokusebenzisa komsele "Druzhba" futhi ngokusebenzisa imishini e Primorsk namafutha Ust-Lug idlula 1.5%, kanye kwabantu bayo luyanda 31⁰ API. Lokhu ayihambisani sebhithi Platt sika owawuthi okuqukethwe sulphur akufanele bube ngaphezu kuka-1.3%, kanti uphawu kwabantu - okungenani 32⁰.

Nge babuqhubeka we Russian abathengi impahla eluhlaza eYurophu uyonika ntandokazi kwamanye amakilasi - Kirkuk futhi Basrah Ukukhanya Iran Khanyisa. Ikhwalithi uwoyela Iranian Iran Khanyisa ifaniswe Urals ejwayelekile. I kwabantu emamakini - 33,1 °-API, futhi okuqukethwe sulphur ingeqi 1.5%.

Ukususa unswinyo olubhekiswe Islamic Republic izimfuno ezivela zikawoyela ngamazwe nezikazwelonke esifundeni Ukubuyekeza izinhlelo zabo amasu kanye ikhumbula izinselele namathuba elandelayo zimo.

ukutshalwa kwezimali angaphandle

uwoyela Iranian emakethe izwe luvula anhlobonhlobo amathuba lungaba MNCs nezinye zimali angaphandle, ikakhulukazi ngemvume izinkontileka ezintsha IPC. Ngemva kweminyaka eminingana ukufinyelela okunomkhawulo ubuchwepheshe bangaphandle kanye nakho Iranian yimboni yetimayini uzodinga usizo ngaphandle, kanti isimo sezimali wezwe kusikisela ukuthi ukuze izinto zimhambele kahle ukuze ususe zonke izithiyo ukuze uthole ngokushesha lolu sizo.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngenkathi zokukhiqiza kuyoba kwasekuqaleni, isimo esifanayo singabonakala kwenzekeni zokuthutha (amapayipi ukuthekelisa okwandisa amavolumu zokukhiqiza), amakhemikhali (igesi futhi amakhemikhali ngokuhlaziya ukukhiqiza olefins ukuthekelisa), kanye processing (for the imishini for uwoyela esingavunyelwe ethuthukisiwe ngesikhathi lwezijeziso).

Ngaphambi kokubeka imingcele, Iran kuye kwaba ongenisa enkulu namafutha, ngakho-ke manje kungenzeka ukuba ukwandisa yokucwenga ukuze banelise izidingo zendawo, ngokwengxenye ngenxa ongaphakeme exchange rate of the Rial, ekhuthaza yokungenisa esikhundleni.

Ukukhiqizwa e-Iran Iraq ukhula, kanti njengoba sinjalo isimo sezombangazwe, sihlelwe ukwandisa eLibya, okuyinto, okulindeleke ukuba ziqinise futhi bandise simo samanje uwoyela ezishibhile. Kukhona amasu amaningi ezokwenza nokunciphisa imiphumela NOC.

Ukuhlola kanye Production

Amathuba ukunciphisa izindleko bese kukhuphula ukusebenza ngendlela, ikakhulukazi ahlobene kumasevisi Oilfield, izinkontileka nabanye izindleko zangaphandle, leli lizwe linazo. Ngentengo ephansi ngoba hydrocarbon utshalomali global e ukuhlola ukukhiqizwa ephezulu izindleko ezifakwa sokwehlisa ijubane izinkampani service kukhona ngokweqile amandla ukukhiqizwa futhi avulekele kakhulu kubuyeketa rates abo phansi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, lapho impahla esemqoka efana nsimbi, manje adayiswa e-kuvumela mlando, ukuncipha eziphawulekayo izindleko ingatholakala nge izinto zokuphatha. Ukuze Middle East NOCs yokudayisa amasheya zisekhona ezishibhile ngokwanele ukuba bathethelele inzuzo eqhubekayo, ukugxila ekwenzeni ngcono supply kuyithuba elihle kakhulu ukunciphisa izindleko ngaphandle abatshali zimali yangempela.

ukucutshungulwa

Akubizi impahla eluhlaza futhi kusho izindleko eliphansi imikhiqizo yayo. Kusukela igesi impahla eluhlaza ngokuvamile zilethwe ngaphezulu endaweni, izindleko imikhiqizo kaphethiloli is kwehlisa amanani ongahluziwe uwoyela.

Lokhu kusho ukuthi ukufuneka ina imikhiqizo elicwengiweyo ikhotheshini encishisiwe ngokushesha kunokuba igesi. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, uma Iran uzongena emakethe nge izitshalo igesi ngokuhlaziya ezengeziwe, okulula kakhulu ukubeka sokusakaza ukuze badonse ezikhulayo ukukhiqizwa gas, ke kuyodingeka ngentengo ingcindezi enkulu. Ngempela, uma kubhekwa ukuthi izwe akusho ukuthekelisa LNG izindawo (futhi kungase kuthathe iminyaka isakhiwo sayo), kungenzeka ukuzuza igesi isivuno sisiningi kakhulu ziyancipha noma ukwakhiwa amapayipi amasha (isib, yokuthi namuhla uxhuma Turkey, Armenia ne-Azerbaijan) noma ukucutshungulwa igesi. Iran isivele ngenkuthalo usebenzisa inketho yokugcina, kuyilapho ngesikhathi esifanayo sihlelela amapayipi ezengeziwe kuhlangatshezwane nezidingo ezisemazweni izinto zokusetshenziswa izitshalo ezintsha Petrochemical entshonalanga yezwe. Ngokwesibonelo, ukwakhiwa 1,500 km West ethylenically ipayipi ungaphakathi esigabeni sokugcina. Lokhu, kuhlangene izindleko eliphansi ukufakwa Iranian cishe siyokwenza Islamic Republic ngumkhiqizi nge izingcaphuno ezijulileyo olefins ukukhanya.

Futhi kusho ukuthi intengo kuhlanganiswe kwemikhiqizo kaphethiloli sizonwebisa ukusetshenziswa kwemifantu okhanda amanye amathuba. ukubuya Iran ukuba emakethe kuzodinga ebukezwe inzuzo isihlobo imikhiqizo ngesisekelo hydrocarbon namazwe igesi esikhiqiza of Gulf ongafinyelela nenzuzo ngokuqhathanisa igesi ukuthekelisa ngesimo LNG kuqhathaniswa processing yayo olefins.

Kuqine kangakanani ezishibhile zinhle ngokuhlaziya ingxenyenamba, ezishibhile ongahluziwe uwoyela Iranian emakethe muhle refiners. Lokhu kuyoholela ekuthuleni ngaphezulu namathuba angcono okutshala izimali Gulf - usukwenzile imisebenzi eminingana ukwandisa umthamo (ngaphandle ukunwetshwa Ezansi nomfula, okungase kwenzeke Iran). Esimweni lapho ngokutholakala sinenkinga yezimali IOCs kanye nezinkampani ezizimele kwezinye izingxenye zomhlaba basuke bezimisele ukuqeda siqu izimpahla zabo zokukhiqiza, Middle East NOCs ithole ithuba ekubumbaneni ezikhangayo nokutholwa.

Ukususa unswinyo ngokumelene Islamic Republic kanye nokwenyuka ahlobene esinazo ngokuhlinzeka hydrocarbon kuholela esiphethweni sokuthi umhlaba kufana ngo-1980, itholakala ekuqaleni amafutha isikhathi engase nokunwetshiwe amanani aphansi. ngombono Iranian uthembisa izinselele ezintsha namathuba, futhi kungokwalabo labo ngokushesha nangempumelelo ubeke ukushintsha Dynamics ezinhlelweni zabo amasu.