Umthetho Okun sika. Okun sika Coefficient: definition, ifomula

Ukuze ukuhlaziya isimo somnotho ngokuvamile zisebenzisa umthetho Okun sika. Inani labantu okufanele lifinyelelwe, okuyinto wethulwa usosayensi, uchaza ubudlelwane phakathi okubangelwa ukusweleka komsebenzi kanye nokukhula. Lalivulwe ngesisekelo idatha enokwehla ngo-1962, ososayensi, ogama udumo futhi yaqanjwa. Izibalo zibonisa ukuthi ukwanda zabangasebenzi ngokweminyaka 1% kuholela ukwehla ngo-GDP usuka ezingaba 2%. Nokho, lokhu isilinganiso akuyona njalo. Kungaba ziyahlukahluka kuye ngokuthi isimo kanye nesikhathi. Lihlela isilinganiso phakathi kwama izinguquko wekota lizinga lalabamnyama labangasebenti kanye GDP yangempela - lena Law Okun sika. Ifomula, kufanele kuphawulwe, namanje wagxeka. Kungafanele futhi esola angasetshenziswa ukuchaza izimo emakethe.

Umthetho Okun sika

Factor futhi umthetho ngemuva lalibukeka ngenxa kwezibalo idatha ukucutshungulwa, okungukuthi, okubonwayo enokwehla. Kusekelwe Ungeluleli imfundiso yokuziphendukela yasekuqaleni, okuyinto ke ihlolwe in practice. Arthur Melvin Ouken wabona iphethini, ukutadisha izibalo ze-United States. Kuyinto eseduze. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi omkhiqizo kuthonywa izici eziningi, hhayi nje izinga lokungasebenzi. Nokho, ukuhlaziya lula ezifana ubudlelwano phakathi ukusebenza komnotho omkhulu ngezinye izikhathi futhi ewusizo njengoba ucwaningo lubonisa Okun. Coefficient ngokukhishwa ososayensi ekhombisa kwencika inhlukanozigaba phakathi okukhipha kanye nokungabibikho kwemisebenzi. Ouken babekholelwa ukuthi ukwanda omkhiqizo ngu-2% ngenxa amashifu ezilandelayo:

• bebek ezingeni sabantu abangasebenzi cyclical 1%;
• okwandisa umsebenzi ka 0.5%;
• kwandziswa kwelinani letikhungo amahora ukusebenzela isisebenzi ngasinye ukuze 0.5%;
• umkhiqizo ukukhula 1%.

Ngakho, ekunciphiseni ezingeni eyindilinga Okun abangasebenzi 0.1%, singalindela ukwanda emananini e-GDP yangempela 0.2%. Nokho, lokhu isilinganiso kuyahluka emazweni ahlukene futhi ngezikhathi. Ukuthembela ngovivinyiwe umkhuba kokubili GDP futhi GNP. Martin kulinganiselwa Prachovni, ukwehla ekukhiqizeni ngu-3% ngenxa ukwehla zabangasebenzi ngokweminyaka 1%. Nokho, iyakholelwa ukuthi lesi kuphela ubuhlobo engesobala. Ngokusho Prachovni ekukhiqizweni kuthinta abangasebenzi kusaba khona, futhi nezinye izinto ezifana umthamo ukusetshenziswa futhi nenombolo zomsebenzi amahora. Ngakho-ke kudingekile ukuba abalahle. Prachovni ibalwa ukuthi wehlise abangasebenzi 1% kuholela nokwanda kokungabi GDP% 0.7 kuphela. Ukwencika iba buthaka ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Ngo-2005, ekuhlaziyweni kwezibalo lwakamuva olwenziwe Endryu-Abela Ben Bernanke. Balinganisela ukuthi yonke leyo ukwanda zabangasebenzi ngokweminyaka 1% kuholela yokwehla kwezinga lemikhiqizo ngu-2%.

izizathu

Kodwa kungani-GDP tilinganiso ephakeme kunaleyo iphesenti ushintsho izinga lokungasebenzi? Kungenzeka ukunikeza izincazelo eziningana:

• Isenzo umphumela wokuphindaphinda. Lapho bebaningi abantu abazisebenzisayo emsebenzini, aba maningi ukufunwa izimpahla. Ngakho-ke, kungaba sikhule ukukhiqizwa ngejubane ngokushesha kunokuba ezingeni umsebenzi.
• Ukungapheleli izibalo. abantu ongasebenzi angase nje ayeke ukufuna imisebenzi. Uma lokhu kwenzeka, bayohlala usekhona kusukela "radar" ejensi kwezibalo.
• Nalapha futhi, abantu empeleni baqashwe ungaqala ukusebenza isikhathi esincishisiwe. Ngo izibalo, kuba pheze akubonakali. Nokho, lesi simo nomthelela obalulekile zokukhiqiza. Ngakho-ke, nge inani elifanayo abasebenzi, singakwazi empeleni uthole izinkomba ezahlukene umkhiqizo wonyaka wonke ohlangene.
• Ukwehla zabasebenzi umkhiqizo. Lokhu kungase kube ngenxa nje kuphela Ukuwohloka inhlangano, kodwa futhi nge inombolo ngokweqile abasebenzi.

Umthetho Okun sika: ifomula

Sibethula notation ezilandelayo:

• Y - okukhiphayo yangempela.
• Y '- ezingaba umkhiqizo wonyaka wonke ohlangene.
• u - abangasebenzi yangempela.
• u '- ezingeni kwemvelo sibalo odlule.
• c - Okun Coefficient.

Ikhumbula notation ngenhla, omunye zingathola le ndlela elandelayo: (Y '- Y) / Y' = a * (u - u ').

E-US, kusukela ngo-1955, lesi sibalo yokugcina ngokuvamile kwaba 2 noma 3, njengoba kuboniswa izifundo enokwehla oshiwo ngenhla. Nokho, le nguqulo umthetho Okun sika kuyaqabukela ukusetshenziswa ngoba amazinga bezikhali nokungasebenzi kanye umkhiqizo wonyaka wonke ohlangene kunzima ngempela ukuhlola. Kunenye nguqulo ye ifomula.

Kanjani ukubala GDP

Ukuze abale nezinga lokukhula kwe-GDP, sethula netinkhomba ezilandelayo:

• Y - inani langempela zalolu daba.
• Δu - ushintsho ezingeni langempela lokuntuleka kwemisebenzi ukuqhathanisa kanye nonyaka odlule.
• C - Okun Coefficient.
• ΔY - ukushintsha okukhipha langempela uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule.
• K - isilinganiso yonyaka ukukhula nokukhiqiza-ukusebenza okugcwele.

Ukusebenzisa notation idatha zingathola ezothando ezilandelayo: ΔY / Y = k - c * Δu.

Ngalesi sikhathi zanamuhla US umlando Coefficient C ilingana 2 futhi K - 3%. Ngakho, i equation: ΔY / Y = 0,03 - 2Δu.

ukusetshenziswa

Ukwazi kanjani ukubala Okun Coefficient, ngokuvamile kuyasiza ekwakheni Amathrendi. Nokho, ngokuvamile, inani okuholela akuyona olunembile kakhulu. Lokhu kungenxa Coefficient ukushintshashintsha emazweni futhi ngezikhathi. Ngakho-ke, kumelwe acabangele ukuqagela umphumela nokukhula kwe-GDP ngokwakha imisebenzi nge ngezinga elithile lokho kugxeka. Ngaphezu kwalokho, yesikhathi esifushane Amathrendi kunembe kakhulu. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi Kunoma yikuphi izinguquko bezimo kungathinta.

practice

Ucabange ukuthi izinga lokungasebenzi 10%, kanye langempela umkhiqizo wonyaka wonke ohlangene - amayunithi milliardov 7500 yemali.
Sidinga ukuthola inani GDP ezazingase uma izinga lokuntuleka kwemisebenzi uhambisane ebonisa zemvelo (6%). Lenkinga ibuye kalula ixazululwe ngokusebenzisa umthetho Okun sika. Lokubiza kubonisa ukuthi izinga langempela ngokweqile phezu yemvelo abangasebenzi 1% kuholela ekulahlekelweni 2% we-GDP. Ngakho okokuqala kudingeka uthole umehluko phakathi 10% kanye no-6%. Ngakho, umehluko phakathi langempela futhi zemvelo Izinga labangasebenzi 4%. Ngemva kwalokho Kulula ukuqonda ukuthi GDP inkinga ngemuva inani layo ezingaba ngu-8%. Manje sithatha langempela umkhiqizo wonyaka wonke ohlangene 100%. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kumele kuphetfwe ukuthi 108% we-GDP yangempela 7500 * 1.08 = 8.1 isigidintathu lwemali. Kufanele kuqondwe ukuthi lesi sibonelo kuphela isibonelo inkambo emnothweni. Empeleni, isimo zingase zihluke ngokuphelele. Ngakho-ke, umthetho ukusetshenziswa Okun sika kuphela ezifanelekela ukubikezela yesikhashana, lapho kungekho isidingo izibalo ezinembile kakhulu.