Ukubona kuqala kuyindlela entsha yokwakha ikusasa. Izici ezibonakalayo

Igama elithi "ukubonelela kwangaphambili" livela "kokubona kwangaphambili" kweNgisi. Ekuhunyushweni, kusho "ukubuka esikhathini esizayo". Kuze kube manje, ukubona kwangaphambili kuyindlela ephumelela kakhulu esetshenziselwa ukwenza izinto ezibaluleke kakhulu emkhakheni wezomnotho, isayensi, ubuchwepheshe kanye nomphakathi.

Ngokusekelwe emiphumeleni etholakalayo ngethuluzi leprojekthi elinjalo, amabalazwe emigwaqo akhethekile adalwa. Yibo abavumela ukuxazulula izinkinga zokubumba ikusasa.

Incazelo yemqondo

Ukubonwa yilokuhlolisisa umbono wesikhathi eside wezobuchwepheshe, isayensi, umphakathi kanye nomnotho, okwenziwe ngendlela ehlelekile. Inhloso yamaphrojekthi anjalo ukuchaza isiqondiso samasu kwezobuchwepheshe obusha kanye nocwaningo, okuzayo esikhathini esizayo okungaletha izinzuzo ezinkulu kunazo zonke zomnotho nezomnotho.

Umlando wokubukeka

Ukubonwa yiyona ndlela evamile. Lo mbono wabonakala eminyakeni engamashumi amahlanu edlule. Indlela "yokubona kwangaphambili" yaqala ukuqala kule phrojekthi, eyakhiwe yi-American corporation RAND. Yilapho lapho imisebenzi ixazululwa khona ukukhomba ubuchwepheshe obuthembisayo emkhakheni wezempi.

Emashumini amahlanu ekhulwini lokugcina, ochwepheshe bekhampani babhekene nenkinga yokungabi nalendlela yezindlela ezisetshenziselwa ukubikezela. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, bahamba ngendlela yabo. Ochwepheshe be-RAND baye bahlakulela indlela kaDelphi. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, izifundo eziningi zangaphambili zaqala ukusekelwe kulo.

Ukuthuthukiswa okuqhubekayo kwendlela eyakhiwe amaMelika kwamukelwa eminyakeni engamashumi ayisikhombisa ekhulwini lokugcina. Kwakuyilapho leyo ndlela yokubona kwangaphambili iphakama kuqala ngezinga likazwelonke. Wayengomunye wabokuqala ozohlonishwa kuhulumeni waseJapane. Akukatholakali kulesi sizwe imiphumela ye-foresight yezwe yesishiyagalolunye isivele isifinyelele.

Izifundo ezifanayo zenziwa cishe kuwo wonke amazwe angamalungu e-European Union, kanye naseChina. Muva nje, lolu hlu lubandakanya iRussia.
Ikhoyili entsha ekuboneni ukuthuthukiswa kwayo yayiyizinkulungwane ezingu-90 zekhulu lokugcina. Lokhu kwakuyisikhathi lapho indlela eya khona ingaphezu kwemingcele yobuchwepheshe nesayensi. Ukubona kwangaphambili kwakusetshenziselwa ukuhlola izimakethe ezithembisayo. Akukade kudala, le ndlela isetshenziselwe ukubikezela izinqubo zomphakathi kanye nokwenza isakhiwo esiyingxenye yamasistimu kazwelonke omusha.

Isicelo

Indlela yokubona ngaphambili ikhuthaza ukuthuthukisa amasu okuhlala isikhathi eside ekuthuthukiseni ubuchwepheshe, isayensi kanye nezomnotho. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, imiphumela yaso ihlose ukwandisa ukuncintisana, kanye nokutholakala kokuthuthukiswa okuphumelelayo kwezomnotho nezenhlalo.

Ukubonwa yiyona ndlela lapho ukunakwa okukhethekile kukhokhwa ekufezeni ukuvumelana phakathi kwabahlanganyeli abakhulu bezinkombandlela ezibalulekile kakhulu. Lokhu kwenziwa ngenhlangano yenkulumompikiswano yabo eqhubekayo.

Kodwa-ke, kufanelekile ukukhumbula engqondweni ukuthi ukubonelela phambili akuyona ukuqagela kwekusasa. Le ndlela isekelwe kwesinye. Uvela ezikhethweni ongakhetha kuzo esikhathini esizayo, okungenzeka kwenzeke ngaphansi kwezimo ezithile.

Ukuboniswa kokuqondisa

Indlela yokubikezela isetshenziselwa ukuqapha izitayela zezobuchwepheshe nezomhlaba jikelele. Inethonya eliqondile ekwakhiweni kwazo zonke izinqubomgomo zomphakathi. Enye yezinkombandlela zokubona kwangaphambili ukubunjwa kwenhlangano yobuchwepheshe, inqubomgomo yokubhekisela yezwe. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukubikezela kufanele kubhekisele emifanekisweni yentuthuko kazwelonke eqhubekayo.

Imiphumela

Umkhiqizo womsebenzi wokuzibonela phambili yizikhungo zemigwaqo okuthiwa umgwaqo. Ziyizincwadi ezisemthethweni ezibonisa izindlela zokuthuthukiswa kombuso esikhathini esizayo. Ngokusekelwe kulawa mabalazwe, izinto eziza kuqala zesikhathi eside zakhiwa emikhakheni ehlukahlukene yokuphila komphakathi nezombangazwe. Amadokhumenti anjalo asebenza njengamathuluzi ayisihluthulelo emibhalweni yomphakathi, ngoba iyisisekelo sokuchaza imigomo kanye nethinga lokuthuthukiswa kwezwe; Lapho wenza izinqumo ezibalulekile ekuxabaneni noma ezimweni ezinzima; Ukuxhumanisa imisebenzi yomphakathi kanye nezombangazwe zombuso.

Izindlela

Okuthandwa kakhulu eminyakeni yamuva yindlela yokubikezela, ebizwa ngokuthi uDelphi. Isekelwe emininingwaneni evela ekuhlolisweni okuqhutshwa phakathi kwenani elikhulu lochwepheshe (2-3,000), kanye nokuhlelwa kwempendulo ngesigaba sesibili socwaningo.

Ezicwaningweni, le ndlela yokubona kwangaphambili ivame ukusetshenziswa. Izinhlobonhlobo zendlela, ebizwa ngokuthi i-Delphi, isivele ithole isicelo sayo eJalimane, eJapane, e-United Kingdom nakwamanye amazwe. Kulolu cwaningo, ochwepheshe abaqeqeshiwe kuphela abakhethiwe futhi amakhomishane ochwepheshe asekwe ezindaweni ezihlukene. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, uhla lwezihloko zomphakathi zithuthukiswa, impumelelo yezomnotho nezesayensi nezobuchwepheshe, okubonakalayo kulindeleke esikhathini eside (kuze kufinyelele eminyakeni engamashumi amabili nanhlanu kuya kwengamashumi amathathu).

Ukubamba iqhaza ochwepheshe bezocwaningo bahlolisisa izihloko ezithile, baqaphele ukutholakala kwezinsiza ezidingekayo. Izithiyo ezingase zivele ekusetshenzisweni kokusebenza kwesiqondiso esibaluleke kakhulu zisungulwa.

Kunenye indlela yokubona kwangaphambili. Izinhlobonhlobo zendlela yokubikezela ikusasa, okuthiwa i-Critical Technologies, isetshenziswe ngokuqinile eFrance, e-United States, e-Czech Republic nakwamanye amazwe. Idatha edingekayo ikhiqizwa ngesisekelo sokwazi ochwepheshe abaqeqeshiwe kakhulu. Bahlanganisa uhlu lwezobuchwepheshe obubucayi ezindaweni zokucwaninga. Ngokuvamile abachwepheshe abangaphezu kwamakhulu amabili abahilelekile kulowo mandla. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ithemba lokubikezela alidluli eminyakeni emihlanu kuya kweyishumi.

Cishe zonke izinhlelo zokubona kuqala zenziwa ngokusebenzisa indlela yamaphaneli ochwepheshe. Le ndlela ibhekwa njengeyisisekelo. Ukuze kusetshenziswe, iqembu labachwepheshe lakhiwa kusuka kubantu abayishumi nambili kuya kwabayishumi. Banikezwa isihloko esithile futhi banikezwe izinyanga eziningana ukuba bacabange ngezinketho ezingenzeka esikhathini esizayo. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, kungenzeka ukusebenzisa ulwazi lwamuva kanye nentuthuko yokuhlaziywa kanye nezinto zokwakha.

Ukuziqhenya kwendlela yamaphaneli ochwepheshe kuvuleka kwenqubo yokubona kwangaphambili kwabantu abaningi. Inzuzo enkulu yale ndlela ukusebenzisana kwabamele abathintekayo emikhakheni ehlukahlukene yomsebenzi kanye nokuqondiswa kwesayensi, okunye okunzima kakhulu ukuhlela kuzo kwezinye izimo.

Ngasekupheleni kweminyaka engamashumi ayisikhombisa ekhulwini leminyaka elidlule, i-Motorola yakhula indlela entsha yokubikezela. Ibizwa ngokuthi imephu yemigwaqo. Indawo eyinhloko yesicelo sayo ukuthuthukiswa kwezinkampani zesikhathi eside zezinkampani ezinkulu noma izimboni zezobuchwepheshe. Okuyinhloko yale ndlela ukuhlela zonke izingxenye eziyinhloko zebhizinisi. Lokhu kusebenza ezimali nakwezokumaketha, ezobuchwepheshe kanye nezinqalasizinda ezivela , imakethe kanye nezinsizakalo. Inzuzo enkulu yebalazwe lomgwaqo ukuthuthukiswa kombono ovunyelweneyo wezinhloso zokuthuthukiswa kwesikhathi eside eziqhutshwa yinkampani.

Ukukhetha indlela

Izindlela ezingasetshenziswa ekuhloleni amaphrojekthi zivuselelwa njalo. Izindlela ezintsha zivela. Ukukhetha kwabo kuxhomeke ezintweni eziningi. Lokhu kufaka isikhathi kanye nezinkinga zenkampani, ukufinyelela emithonjeni yolwazi, njll. Kodwa-ke, isimo esiyinhloko esiqinisekisa ukuthi impumelelo yephrojekthi iyindlela yokusebenzisa indlela enjalo ezoqinisekisa umsebenzi ophumelela kakhulu weqembu labachwepheshe abathintekayo.

Isiphetho

Ngakho-ke ukubonelela kwangaphambili? Lona ubuchwepheshe obukhethekile lapho kubikezelwa khona isikhathi eside. Ngamanye amazwi, kuyindlela ecacile yokwakha imodeli ehlelekile, edidiyelwe futhi enomthwalo wekusasa lethu. Ukubona kwangaphambili 2030, 2050, njll, kuyisici esiyinhloko socwaningo.

Umbono wesikhathi esizayo ubonakala kumadokhumende ahlukahlukene okuyisisekelo sokuthuthukiswa kwezinhlelo zesikhathi eside namasu okuthuthukiswa kwamazwe.