I imiphumela yokushisa komkhathi. Imicabango, imibono, izibikezelo ososayensi

Eminyakeni yamuva, ososayensi abaningi bathi Umhlaba kwenzekani ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke. Le nqubo ubona ngamunye wethu. Phela, izinguquko sezulu kakhulu eminyakeni yamuva Ubusika kuthiwa some, entwasahlobo iza sihambile, ihlobo ngezinye izikhathi kushisa kakhulu.

Nokho naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi imiphumela yokushisa komkhathi eqoshiwe kokuma eziningi zesayensi emhlabeni kulesi sihloko kuze kube kukhona mpikiswano engapheli. Abanye ososayensi bakholelwa ukuthi ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu eMhlabeni ziyohlasela "Ice Age." Abanye benza izibikezelo okungekuhle, kuyilapho abanye bakholelwa ukuthi imiphumela emibi komkhathi ezingabazekayo embulungeni. Ngubani kwesokudla? Ake sizame sokulungisa le nkinga.

Umqondo yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke

Okusikiselwa kumele inikwe leli gama? Ukufudumala komhlaba Zomhlaba - inqubo okuyinto ukwenyuka kancane asho lokushisa lonyaka esikhathini ungqimba ebusweni emkhathini. Kwenzeka ngenxa ukwanda okuhlushwa abamba ukushisa, kodwa futhi ngenxa yezinguquko umsebenzi solar noma ukuqhuma.

Inkinga yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke isibe ikakhulukazi ajabulise umphakathi wezwe lonke ngasekupheleni kwekhulu lama-20. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukwanda lokushisa, abaningi baye exhumene ukuthuthukiswa umkhakha, adedelwa emkhathini, i-methane, isikhutha nezinye izinto ezingadingeki amagesi eziningi okubangela kwamagesi abamba ukushisa emkhathini. Kuyini lokhu mkhuba?

Amagesi Abamba Ukushisa Emkhathini - lokhu amanani ukwanda kusho yonyaka lokushisa air uquqaba ngenxa lokuhlushwa ukukhula okuphakathi umusi, i-methane, njll Lezi amagesi kukhona uhlobo ifilimu okuyinto efana zokugcina glazing sihamba kalula ngokusebenzisa ilanga imisebe futhi azigcina ukushisa ... Nokho, kukhona inala ubufakazi besayensi ukuthi imbangela yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke Emhlabeni amanga kuphela khona abamba ukushisa emkhathini. Kukhona yemibono eminingi ecatshangelwayo. Nokho, akekho kubo ingase ikhishwe ngokuqiniseka okuphelele. Cabangela la mazwi lososayensi, ngasinye okufanele ukunakwa enkulu.

hypothesis №1

Ososayensi abaningi bakholelwa ukuthi imbangela yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke eplanethini yethu baqamekela ukwanda umsebenzi solar. Kulesi inkanyezi ababikezeli bezulu ngokuvamile baphawula okuthiwa ilanga izindawo, amelela akukho okunye kuka yamandla kazibuthe amakhulu. Lesi simo esiyingqayizivele sibangelwa kubangela izinguquko izimo zezulu.

Hhayi othile wekhulu, ababikezeli bezulu, ososayensi base ngokubala ekuveleni ilanga izindawo. Ngokusekelwe kulezi idatha eyiNgisi E. Mondoro wenza isiphetho esithakazelisayo ngo-1983 ukuthi phakathi nekhulu 14-19th, okuyinto ngezinye izikhathi ibizwa ngokuthi yobudala ezincane ice, lesi simanga ezintweni ezisesibhakabhakeni zalotshwa. Futhi ngo-1991, abacwaningi e-University of Danish Meteorological kuye Babetadisha 'sunspots ", ukulotshwa ekhulwini lama-20. Isiphetho kwaba akunakungatshazwa. Ososayensi baye waqinisekisa iqiniso lokuthi kukhona okusobala phakathi kushintsha izinga lokushisa emhlabeni futhi umsebenzi solar.

hypothesis №2

sezinkanyezi zaseYugoslavia Milankovitch Kwavezwa ukuthi ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kubangelwa ikakhulu izinguquko emzileni lapho Umhlaba uzungeza ilanga, ebe. Ithonya Lako ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye engela ukujikeleza iplanethi.

Izici ezintsha kule sikhundla futhi ngokunyakaza Zomhlaba kungaba ibe imbangela izinguquko ibhalansi emisebeni le planethi, futhi ngenxa yalokho, ngo sezulu layo.

Umthelela izilwandle zomhlaba

Kukholakala ukuthi ibangelwa zomhlaba kwesimo sezulu eMhlabeni ulwandle. isici sayo amanzi - emikhulu inertial solar energy ibhethri. Ososayensi bathole ukuthi ukushuba phakathi izilwandle futhi izingqimba engezansi emkhathini, i olunzulu ukushisa exchange. Lokhu kuholela abalulekile kwesimo sezulu.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, amanzi olwandle imayelana eziyikhulu namashumi amane isigidintathu amathani ziyoncibilika carbon dioxide. Ngaphansi kwezimo ezithile zemvelo element ingena emkhathini, futhi ezinomthelela sezulu, ukudala Amagesi Abamba Ukushisa Emkhathini.

izintaba-mlilo eziqhumayo

Ngokusho ososayensi, omunye izimbangela ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke-mlilo. Phakathi nokuqhuma emkhathini kuza omningi carbon dioxide. Kuyinto imbangela anda okushisa isilinganiso.

Lokhu System ongaqondakali Solar

Enye yezimbangela yokufudumala Emhlabeni global, ngokososayensi, kungukuthi wafunda ngokugcwele nokuxhumana ekhona phakathi Sun namaplanethi ngaphakathi uhlelo lwayo. okushisa emhlabeni uvuke kukaMoya ezahlukene imikhakha okudonsa futhi izinhlobo eziningi amandla.

Lutho washintsha

Phakathi ososayensi kukhona umbono, nokuthi ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke okwenzeka ngokwalo, ngaphandle ithonya lomuntu futhi iyiphi amathonya zangaphandle. Lo mbono futhi unalo ilungelo lokuthatha khona, njengoba iplanethi yethu - kuba uhlelo enkulu ngokungenakulinganiswa neyinkimbinkimbi ngokungaphezulu kakhulu nge eziningi izakhi ezahlukene kwesakhiwo. Abasekeli balobu umbono esakhele onobuhle ahlukahlukene zezibalo, kokuqinisekisa ukuthi ekushintshashintsheni zemvelo kule ungqimba ebusweni kungaba kusuka degrees 0 kuya 4.

Ukuze ukusola Ngoba thina siyini?

Imbangela ethandwa kakhulu yokufudumala eplanethini yethu global kuyinto umsebenzi womuntu okwandayo ngokuyinhloko ukushintsha ukwakheka kwamakhemikhali emkhathini. umoya te ngaphezulu amagesi abamba ukushisa kusuka umkhakha.

Ukweseka lokhu mbono bathi izinombolo ezithile. Iqiniso liwukuthi past 100 iminyaka nezinga lokushisa emkhathini ephansi liye landa ngamaphesenti 0.8 degrees. izinqubo zemvelo, lokhu izinga liphezulu kakhulu, ngoba ngaphambi lezi zinguquko zenzeka esikhathini ezingaphezu kweyodwa yeminyaka. Ngaphezu kwalokho, emashumini eminyaka amuva nje, izinga ukwanda lokushisa komoya liye landa nakakhulu.

abakhiqizi ekwetfula kweqiniso?

Kuze kube manje, kuze kube sekupheleni futhi alikwazi ukuxazululwa umbuzo olandelayo: "Ukushisa Komkhathi - Yinganekwane Noma Yiqiniso?". Kukhona umbono yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu liwukuthi - limane nje iphrojekthi kwezohwebo. Umlando isihloko waqala ngo-1990 Ngaphambi kwalokho isintu bethukile horror izindaba mayelana izimbobo-ozone, okuyinto akhiwa ngenxa yokuba khona emkhathini Freon. Okuqukethwe kwaleli igesi emoyeni kwaba azinakwa, kodwa, nokho, lo mbono zakala US abakhiqizi amafriji. Abazange zisebenzisa Freon enkulu ekwakhekeni imikhiqizo yayo futhi lokho kwaholela empini esinonya ngokumelene izimbangi. Ngenxa yalokho, izinkampani zaseYurophu zaqala esikhundleni Freon eshibhile nozakwabo ezibizayo, okwandisa izindleko amafriji.

Namuhla umbono yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke esandleni yezimbangela eziningi zezombusazwe. Phela, ukukhathalela imvelo uyakwazi ukuletha nezikhundla zabo abasekeli abaningi uzothola amandla zaziswe.

zimo

Izibikezelo ososayensi ngalokho phetho for iplanethi yethu izoba yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu, edidayo. Ngenxa yokuba yinkimbinkimbi izinqubo ezenzeka emhlabeni, isimo angagcina ngaphansi ngezenzakalo ezihlukene.

Ngakho, kunenkolelo yokuthi wokuguquka kwesimo sezulu uzoqala kwenzeke ngokuhamba kweminyaka futhi ngisho zeminyaka. Lokhu kungenxa yokuba yinkimbinkimbi ubudlelwano phakathi izilwandle kanye nomkhathi. Lezi amandla accumulator enamandla asikwazi kabusha ngokushesha ngangokunokwenzeka.

Kodwa kukhona esinye simo, lapho ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kuzokwenzekani kuqhathaniswa ngokushesha kule mbulunga yethu. Amazinga air ekupheleni kwekhulu lama-21 kuzokhulisa kuqhathaniswa 1990, ngesilinganiso degrees 1.1 kuya 6.4. Lokhu kuzoqala ukuncibilika kakhulu iqhwa e-Arctic nase-Antarctica. Ngenxa yalokho, amanzi ezilwandle kuzokhuphula izinga lakho. Le nqubo ibizwa waphawula namuhla. Ngakho, kusukela ngo-1995 kuya ku 2005. ukushuba amanzi ezilwandle, sesinyukele by 4 cm. Uma le nqubo akusenzi ijubane layo uma igijima, izikhukhula lapho ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kuba akunakugwenywa emazweni eziningi ezisogwini. Ikakhulukazi uthinta ezindaweni ezinabantu ise-Asia.

Izinqubo-climate change entshonalanga ye-United States nasenyakatho yeYurophu kuzobangela ukwanda imvamisa iziphepho nasemvuleni. On la mazwe ephindwe kabili yokubhidlika kunalapho kuka kwekhulu lama-20, iziphepho ngeke ekufuthekeni. Siyoba yini imiphumela yokushisa komkhathi e Esimeni esinjalo-Europe? On ezindaweni APC kuyoba sezulu esiguquguqukayo ebusika ukufudumala ehlobo nemvula. Ngo eseMpumalanga naseNingizimu-Europe (kuhlanganise iMedithera) sizoba ukushisa nesomiso.

Kukhona futhi izibikezelo ososayensi, owawuthi ushintsho global ezimweni zezulu kwezinye izingxenye zomhlaba kuzoholela Ukupholisa yesikhashana. Loku kutawufaka sandla deceleration ka ofudumele kubangelwa ukuncibilika ofeleba ice. Futhi unga futhi ngci labo abathwali omkhulu amandla elanga, okuyinto kuyoba imbangela ukuqala ice age esilandelayo.

Okubi Isehlakalo kungaba inhlekelele abamba ukushisa. It banga inguquko emkhathini carbon dioxide eziqukethwe ukushuba we World Ocean. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngenxa ukuncibilika kwezinguzunga zeqhwa okwakungokokuqala ngqá we eyiqhwa methane ukujama ngaphandle. Ezingqimbeni engezansi ozungeze umhlaba Kumiswa ifilimu ezinkulukazi, futhi izinga lokushisa bayovuka ngezabelo inhlekelele.

Imiphumela kwesimo sezulu embulungeni yonke

Ososayensi bakholelwa ukuthi ukwenqaba izinyathelo ezinqala ukuze ukwehlisa ukukhishwa kogesi wendlwana kuzoholela ukwanda kusho lokushisa waminyaka yonke 1.4-5.8 degrees ngu 2100 kakade. Imiphumela ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke sizothinta ukwanda ngezikhathi sezulu esishisayo, okuyinto iyoba ngokwedlulele okushisa zabo futhi amandla awo anciphe. Ngaphezu kwalokho, isimo ixubene ezindaweni ezahlukene iplanethi yethu.

Yiziphi imithelela afakwa ngokushesha yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke phezu kwezwe izilwane? Ukuze ushintshe indawo yazo yokuhlala ziyophoqeleka ukuba penguins, izimvu zamanzi namabhere, asetshenziselwa abahlala kweqhwa elimboze izindawo ezibandayo. Nokho, ngezitshalo nangezilwane eziphila kuzo abaningi ngeke linyamalale, uma bengakwazi ukuzivumelanisa nesimo lesisha.

Futhi, ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kuzokwenza ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu embulungeni yonke. Ngokusho okwashiwo izazi, kuzobangela Ukwanda kwenani izikhukhula, okuyinto baye baba phetho iziphepho. Ngaphezu kwalokho, 15-20% nokuncipha imvula ehlobo, okubangela ugwadule ezindaweni eziningi wezolimo. Futhi ngenxa ukwanda lokushisa kanye nezinga ulwandle amanzi umngcele wemvelo esishintshashintshayo izoya enyakatho.

Iyini imiphumela yokushisa komkhathi umuntu? Esikhatsini lesifisha, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kufuna abantu abanezinkinga amanzi okuphuza, ne ukutshala umhlaba wokulima. Futhi kuholele ukwanda isibalo izifo ezithathelwanayo. Futhi igalelo elinzima nakakhulu uzobe olwehlela amazwe ampofu kakhulu, okuyinto, isimiso, alamukeli noma yimuphi umthwalo wokunakekela kungafiki kwesimo sezulu.

Ngokusho okwashiwo izazi, abangaba yizigidi eziyisithupha abantu sisonqenqemeni indlala. Ngu 2080, amaShayina futhi Asians bangahlola nenhlekelele kwemvelo, kubangelwa izinguquko amaphethini kwemvula kanye ukuncibilika izinguzunga zeqhwa. Inqubo efanayo kuzoholela esikhukhulayo eziqhingini eziningi ezincane nezindawo ezisogwini. Le ndawo ezithandwa yizikhukhula, kuyoba komyalelo wokungabi eziyikhulu abantu abangamagovu, abaningi babo bephoqeleka ukuba uthuthele. Ososayensi babikezela ukunyamalala ngisho ezinye izifunda (ezifana Netherlands naseDenmark). Kungenzeka ukuthi intando amanzi eyayiyingxenye yeJalimane.

Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke, kungenzeka isinyathelo esilandelayo yokuziphendukela kwemvelo. Okhokho bethu babhekana nezinkinga ezifanayo nalezo zikhathi lapho engu ice emva lokushisa uvukile izinyathelo eziyishumi. Izinguquko ezinjalo, ngakho kule izimo zokuphila kwaholela ekusungulweni impucuko lanamuhla.

Imiphumela ukushitsha kwesimo sezulu Russia

Ezinye izakhamuzi zethu nabo bakholelwa ukuthi ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke sizothinta kuphela izakhamuzi nezinye izifundazwe. Phela, i-Russia - izwe nge sezulu esibandayo nokwenyuka kwezinga lokushisa komoya ngeke kuphela ukuzuza. Nciphisa izindleko ekhaya Ukushisa izitshalo ezimbonini. izinzuzo zayo kulindeleke ukuthunga, nezolimo.

Khona-ke, ososayensi kuphrojekthi ukuthi indaba yesivuvu jikelele idinga nasemiphumeleni yaso Abantu BaseRussia? Ngenxa kuze kube sezingeni insimu futhi ezihlukahlukene enkulu etholakalayo ku esishintshashintshayo yayo zezulu izinguquko sezulu babonakalise ngezindlela ezahlukene. Kwezinye izifunda, bayoba omuhle, kodwa kulesi esinye - ezingezinhle.

Ngokwesibonelo, kulinganiselwa 3-4 izinsuku kuleli zwe kumele kungancipha ngesikhathi bafudumale. Futhi izonikeza eziphathekayo energy imali. Kodwa ngesikhathi esifanayo futhi uzothola elinye umphumela yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke futhi nemiphumela yayo. Ukuze Russia, lokhu kusongela ukwandisa inani lezinsuku ezisezingeni eliphezulu ngisho okushisa ezibucayi. Kule ndaba, kuyoba ukwandisa izindleko air conditioning ne izakhiwo zezimboni. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukukhula ezifana amagagasi ukushisa iyoba isici okungekuhle umonakala impilo zabantu, ikakhulukazi labo abahlala emadolobheni amakhulu.

Ukufudumala komhlaba sekuba usongo futhi kakade wakha nezinkinga ukuncibilika eyiqhwa. Subsidence kulezi zindawo kuyingozi ukuba ezokuthutha kanye nobunjiniyela izindawo, kanye nezakhiwo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, phakathi ukuncibilika eyiqhwa kuyoba ushintsho landscape lapho kumiswa amachibi thermokarst kuso.

isiphetho

Alikabibikho impendulo esiqondile yombuzo elandelayo: "Kuyini Ukushisa Komkhathi - Yinganekwane Noma Yiqiniso?". Nokho, ukuthi le nkinga ngempela palpable, futhi kufanele siqaphelisise. Ngokusho okwashiwo izazi, it is ikakhulukazi wazibonakalisa 1996-1997, lapho isintu yethulwa ngempela lezimanga ambalwa sezulu ngenxa yezikhukhula mayelana 600 ezahlukene kanye neziphepho, snowfalls kanye iziphepho, somiso kanye nokuzamazama komhlaba. Phakathi nale minyaka, element yabangela umonakalo impahla omkhulu lemali zamadola ayisithupha bhiliyoni sabulala izinkulungwane nanye.

Ukuxazulula inkinga yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke kufanele kube ezingeni lomhlaba wonke jikelele, ne iqhaza komphakathi weentjhabatjhaba futhi ngosizo uhulumeni wombuso ngamunye. Ukulondoloza impilo yale planethi, isintu kumelwe zamukele uhlelo esinye isenzo, ukuhlinzeka ukuqapha kanye nokubika ngokuphatha ngamunye ezigabeni kokusebenza.