Ukukhula kwe-euro (2014) e-Russia

Phakathi nezinyanga zokuqala 2014 ruble yehliswa ngokumelene zezimali ezinkulu zomhlaba, kuhlanganise i-euro. lwemali olulodwa European maqondana Russia esikhathini esizayo kanjani? Singalindela ukuthi euro bayoqhubeka bekhula? Konke kuncike ezicini eziningi, ngokwemvelo kwezomnotho nakwezombusazwe.

Regulator yendlela

Lokho esikubonayo esibukweni isihenqo exchange amaphuzu - umphumela lwemali yokuhweba, aphethwe iqhaza Central Bank. Inani ukuboniswa izinombolo - inhlanganisela umthelela inqwaba ngezimali izindlela, kuhlanganise naleyo esetshenziswa izikhungo emazweni zezomnotho kufakwa Central Bank. Omunye amathuluzi main ukuthonya yasebhange Russian emakethe - kwamukelekile ukuhweba band. Uma ruble kakhulu ibukelwe phansi nobe overestimated, Central Bank iqala ukuthenga noma ukuthengisa imali ukugcina nemagugu ladzingekako. Kuyenzeka lwemali kokungenela ukuvimbela engahlula ukwehla of the ruble.

Ngemva umthamo yayo idlula $ 350 million, umhubhe ngaphakathi kwemingcele yayo sigudluke phezulu nge 5 amasenti. Izenzo ezinjalo of Central Bank - into evamile umnotho, kodwa ezinyangeni lokuqala 2014 lezinhlangano babe ogxile sohlangothi olulodwa. Exchange rate band ukuthi sigudluke, okuwuphawu lube buthaka engaguquki of the ruble. Lezi zibalo obucacile: ngokuziqhathanisa abakuzuzile ngonyaka odlule isibalo sabantu "ukhuni" Russian maqondana zezimali ezinkulu zomhlaba, wawa ngamaphesenti angu-10. Sula Isibikezelo euro dollar ukukhula esizibonayo.

Factor sokukhula komnotho

Eminyakeni yamuva, i-ruble, njengoba umthetho, ezihambayo up and down izikali lwemali cishe ngo ukuhlanganisa ngqo amanani kawoyela. Nokho, manje, incike izinga nezinye izinkomba komnotho omkhulu. Okokuqala, kunjengoba enjalo ukukhula. Yize intengo emgqonyeni uwoyela esigculisayo $ 100 nokuningi, GDP Russia sakhula kancane kakhulu. Isibikezelo 2014 - ukwanda ngabantu abangaba ngu-1.5 amaphesenti, okuyinto iphezulu kwesilinganiso emhlabeni.

amanani aphansi nakanjani nomthelela ruble exchange rate kwizimali ehola. ukukhula kwe-euro ngo-2014 ngokumelene imali yamaphepha isiRashiya, ngaleyo ndlela, basengaba njengoba eliphezulu angu-10. Nokho, SIZUZISA Ruble ngokumelene euro ukuba izakhamuzi ezivamile isiRashiya, ngokusho kongoti, uphansi: intengo impahla kakhulu sivezwe kula lwemali kazwelonke. Ngokuphambene, isibonelo, kusukela 90, lapho tags intengo eziningi ezitolo abekade "y. e. ". Kukhona kungenzeka kuphela ukwanda intengo yezimpahla ezingena, kodwa hhayi ngaphezulu kuka-10 per cent of okufanayo.

Iziphathimandla balokhu benethemba

Isimo emelelwa Ministry of Finance ngesikhathi esifanayo akalindele izinkinga kusukela ukunciphisa olukhulu endleleni intengo ruble emakethe exchange angaphandle ngo-2014. Ngokusho kwezikhulu lo mnyango, ngesizathu esingathí sina kokushintshashintsha kwamanani okuhwebelana Awekho ngezizathu ekhethekile kwezomnotho, kanye namagugu awo kungenzeka, ngandlela-thile, uzohlala ngaphakathi ephasishi esabekwa Central Bank. Nokho, Ministry of Finance ukugwema ukhuluma ngani amathemba mkhuba reverse: ngeke kwenzeke euro dollar, kanye nokuqinisa ruble.

Abanye ochwepheshe bakholelwa ukuthi lwemali emakethe Russian yazuza ukuzinza kule minyaka yamuva. Kule ndaba, ibhange central in 2015 izinhlelo ukulahla ukuqapha ruble futhi ushintshe ukwehla kwamandla emali zokukhomba - lithathelwe umsebenzi ukuze kuhlelwe umnotho izibalo ukukhula amanani umthengi. Cishe, lokhu kusho wokudela lwemali kazwelonke e "ezintantayo khulula", kodwa zinikezwe Amathrendi omuhle eminyakeni yamuva kunyakaza yayo eqinile zenzeka, ngokuvumelana okulindelwe bezimali, akufanele.

Ibhizinisi baqaphe

Ngokungafani namazwi owandile zikahulumeni, izinkampani zangasese, ikakhulukazi amabhange ukungatholi sokulindela ngakho. Ngokusho kwezazi ezithile, hhayi ezihlobene Ministry of Finance izakhiwo, buthakathaka ruble - iyisici letindzala. Yaqala Kungekhona lokho kuphela, kodwa ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule. Amafutha amanani Okwamanje azinamphumela ngqo kwi-ruble. Kuyinto okunye: falling funa kwemali yamazwe asathuthuka, futhi, kunalokho, kukhona ukuthandwa okwandayo dollar, i-euro.

ERussia, ngasendleleni, imikhakha iningi umnotho akunakubangelwa isakhiwo yezwe ukuba uhlobo emakiwe. Lokhu kuthambekela - global futhi ixhunyaniswe inhlekelele yembulunga yonke, okwathi ngemva kwalokho esafufusa kungukuthi ekuthuthukiseni kakhulu ngenkuthalo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, isimo nzima yokuthi abatshalizimali kanye emakethe uqala "Ukugibela" ke ukuthengisa ruble ngesikhathi exchange. Ngesilinganiso lwemali kazwelonke we-Russia, ngaleyo ndlela, kuthinta isici ngokwengqondo. Abatshalizimali ngokwesiko kubhekwe ruble engazinzile, futhi etshaliwe kuwo - okuyingozi.

Kodwa kungcono ukulondoloza in ruble

Naphezu Amathrendi ongathandeki ochwepheshe lwemali imakethe musa ukweluleka baseRussia ukwenza ukonga zamadola euro. Iqiniso lokuthi amabhange yethu basayoyiveza eziphezulu zenzalo yokuzigcina ruble imali --10% ngonyaka. Maqondana zezimali angaphandle Sekuyisikhathi eside amagugu anjalo abasekho. Uma, ukwenza isibonelo, ukuvumela ruble depreciate ngisho 10%, bese zimali ngeke ulahlekelwe lutho. Maqondana wamanje izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali izinkomba idiphozi anjalo kunoma yisiphi isimo kunenzuzo isitoreji imali samuntu.

A iphesenti lemali imali efanayo ngempela ulahleke ukuguqulwa. Nokho, le "izibalo" akulona ngempela iqiniso, uma umuntu uyagijima ukuyohlala kwelinye izwe noma uthola iholo, kuye lokushintshisana ngemali kwamazwe ngamazwe. Sikhishwe yokuthi ukukhula kuyoba euro, ngonyaka th 2014 kubonakala impela ekuqongeleleni imali kulo lwemali ngenjongo yokuthuthela kwelinye izwe.

Icala - ngezwi abaMhlophe

Uma izinga lokushintshisana kuncike Inqubomgomo control kazwelonke - Central Bank of Russia, ukwanda kwe-euro, esikhundleni salokho, buvezwa umsebenzi European Central Bank. Manje isikhungo sezezimali ukhetha indlela kuqhathaniswa soft ukulawulwa emakethe futhi awathandi izindlela elingavamile nomthelela euro. Le nqubomgomo kunomthelela kuwenta ncono ngalokulingene emnothweni eurozone ekuqaleni kuka 2014. Uma lokhu kuqhubeka, izinga lwemali olulodwa ngokumelene nezinye imali yamaphepha emhlabeni awokuthi kuyokhula.

Ngokuphathelene Isimo eyisihlobo euro ruble, lapho izodlala indima le Isici nedola laseMelika. Inkambo lwemali Russian incike ezinye ezimbili, okwamanje abalulekile emhlabeni jikelele. Akunakwenzeka ukuthi euro liqhathaniswa ne-dollar ngo-2014 sizoba abaphambuki kakhulu ukubaluleka 1.4 amaphuzu (kunyakaza namandla ngeke sivumele elawula Central Bank). Ngakho-ke, uma uhlobo lwemali US uyofinyelela, isibonelo, ama-ruble angu-36, intengo European ingeqi 50.

Isibikezelo sezulu sezinsuku

Abanye ochwepheshe ulindele ruble ukuqinisa emakethe yasebhange ekupheleni 2014, futhi ngenxa yokuthi izakhamuzi kangcono hhayi ukuba balwe kulezo zokucabangela ukuthenga up zamadola euro. I sezizathu zokuba naleli themba sobala - kunqubomgomo Central Bank sika. Ngakho-ke lo mkhuba omubi esiye zanqwabelana ngo-2013, kumelwe ushintshe isiqondiso maphakathi no-2014. Phakathi izinombolo phambili - ruble 33 dollar ngalinye, 43,5 - euro ngasinye. Lokhu kubuye ngenxa izici macroeconomic: emazweni athuthukile EU kulindeleke ukuthi likhuphuke izinga isidingo emphahleni eRussia, kanye ukwanda ukufunwa uwoyela. Nokho, umbuzo wokuthi kuyoba khona ukwanda okukhulu kwe-euro, projection 2014 aziphazamiseki.

Kukhona inguqulo ukuthi isimo somnotho samanje akukho isidingo ukumehlisa Ruble (njengoba kwenzeka, isibonelo, ngo-2008). Ke kwabakho yokwehla kakhulu kwamanani-GDP, abangasebenzi rose ngqo, futhi ngenxa ukwehla ukuthi kulondolozwa notshani emikhakheni eminingi yomnotho Russian (ikakhulukazi ukuthekelisa ngamakhasimende). Ngaphezu kwalokho, ochwepheshe bakholelwa, ngaleso sikhathi ibhange central uye wachitha ukwehla we mayelana $ 200 billion, futhi namuhla kungaba ngcono ukuthumela imali etholakalayo ezinye izinjongo.

GEOPOLITICS

Kuyaziwa ukuthi "imali othanda ukuthula". Ngakho-ke, iyiphi Amathrendi emnothweni wamazwe omhlaba zibambene ngentuthuko kwezepolitiki. Namuhla, isihloko esiyinhloko emhlabeni - lena isimo emhlabeni Ukraine. Uma ukungezwani uhlobano phakathi Russia, e-Europe ne-United States awe, lo zezimali zikazwelonke ka elinde buyisela emuva ukuze amagugu ngoJanuwari noFebhuwari. Nokho, ngisho Kulokhu, ungalindeli ukwazisa okunamandla ruble ngokumelene zezimali angaphandle, kusukela, ngaphandle isici inqubomgomo uhlala negalelo elikhulu Amathrendi kwezomnotho kungaqinisa dollar kanye euro. 2014 Unyaka kungaba yilo ngokuyinhloko elinquma ukuthi le zithwala eyinhloko GEOPOLITICS esikhathini esizayo esiseduze.

Into esemqoka ukuthi emakethe eyayihamba

Isimo kungakhungathekisa kakhulu sokwenza noma imuphi emakethe exchange angaphandle - kuyinto amile. Movement emakethe, kungaba euro noma ukwehla of the ruble, ukunikeza izimpawu zimali ukwenza okuthile, ukuthatha noma yisiphi isinqumo. Nokho, njengoba ochwepheshe uqaphele, ukwakha izibikezelo eside ku exchange rate - umsebenzi elingabongi. Kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi ukuqagela isiqondiso, okuningi kuxhomeke ezicini okuyinto isenzo sikulindele nzima kakhulu. Kubalulekile ukuthi abahlanganyeli emakethe futhi umphakathi ukufinyelela olwazini olunembile mayelana izinqubo ezenzeka emnothweni.