Nemiqondo eyisisekelo okungenzeka theory. Imithetho okungenzeka theory

Abantu abaningi, uma sibhekene nokungabi nombono wokuthi "okungenzeka theory", esaba, becabanga ukuthi kuyinto okungabekezeleleki, kunzima kakhulu. Kodwa-ke empeleni ingeyona inhlekelele kangako. Lamuhla sitawubuka nemiqondo eyisisekelo okungenzeka theory, funda ukuxazulula izinkinga by izibonelo ezishaya emhloleni zendlela azisebenzisa.

isayensi

Yini ukutadisha igatsha wezibalo njengendlela "okungenzeka theory"? Lo mbhalo uthi amaphethini imicimbi okungahleliwe kanye eziguquguqukayo. Ngokokuqala ngqá udaba of Concerned Scientists e ngekhulu weshumi nesishiyagalombili, lapho afundela khona ukugembula. nemiqondo eyisisekelo okungenzeka theory - mcimbi. Kuyinto iyiphi okuyiqiniso esashiwo isipiliyoni noma ukubheka kwabanye. Kodwa kwenzekani? Omunye umqondo oyisisekelo inkolelo-mbono yokuziphendukela okungenzeka. Kusho ukuthi le ngxenye izimo kungukuthi ngephutha wadala, futhi injongo. Ngokuphathelene ukubhekwa, kukhona umcwaningi yena akusho iqhaza isipiliyoni, kodwa umane yobufakazi kwalezi zenzakalo, ke akunamthelela okwenzekayo.

imicimbi

Safunda ukuthi umqondo oyisisekelo inkolelo-mbono yokuziphendukela okungenzeka - umcimbi, kodwa akazange abheke ngezigaba. Bonke zihlukaniswe izigaba ezilandelayo:

• Esinokwethenjelwa.
• Akunakwenzeka.
• Okungahleliwe.

Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi umcimbi, okuyinto abukwa noma owadalile ngokuhamba ukuhlola, basuke abangenwa yilo ngezigaba. Sinikeza zonke uhlobo meet ngokwehlukile.

umcimbi othile

Lokhu kuyiqiniso kuwo ukwenza iqoqo ezidingekayo imisebenzi. Ukuze siwaqonde kangcono empeleni, kungcono ukunikeza izibonelo ezimbalwa. Lena ilawulwe umthetho futhi physics, chemistry, ezomnotho, kanye mathematics ephakeme. okungenzeka theory ihlanganisa umqondo ebalulekile enjengesifundo isenzakalo esibalulekile. Nazi ezinye izibonelo:

• Sisebenza futhi lelo holo ngesimo inkokhelo.
• Awu lidlule izivivinyo, lidlule umncintiswano-ke nokuthola lelo holo ngesimo yokwemukela wezemfundo.
• Siye imali ebhange, ngiphinde ngibabone uma kunesidingo.

izenzakalo ezinjalo ziyiqiniso. Uma siye wagcwalisa zonke izimo ezidingekayo, qiniseka ukuthola umphumela kulindeleke.

umcimbi akunakwenzeka

Manje sicabanga izakhi inkolelo-mbono yokuziphendukela okungenzeka. Sinikeza ukuya kucaciswa lezi zinhlobo ezilandelayo izenzakalo - okuyi engenakwenzeka. Ukuqala Ibeke Ukubusa ebaluleke kakhulu - ematfuba umcimbi engenakwenzeka zero.

Kule ekwakhiweni ayikwazi derogated ekuxazululeni izinkinga. Ukuze sicacise leli phuzu izibonelo izenzakalo ezinjalo:

• Amanzi buhlangene ezingeni lokushisa plus eziyishumi (akunakwenzeka).
• Ukungabikho kukagesi akuphazamisi ukukhiqizwa (njengokuthi ayinakwenzeka njengoba kulesibonelo odlule).

izibonelo Okuningi banikwa akudingekile, njengoba kuchaziwe ngenhla ngokucacile kakhulu zibonisa ngokuyisisekelo kulesi sigaba. umcimbi Impossible akusoze kwenzeka ngesikhathi sokuhlolwa ngaphansi kwanoma yiziphi izimo.

izenzakalo ezingahleliwe

Ngokufunda tincenye okungenzeka theory, ukunakekelwa okukhethekile kufanele zikhokhelwe uhlobo kunikezwa mcimbi. Laba yibo ngokutadisha lokhu isayensi. Ngenxa isipiliyoni engenzeka noma cha okuthile. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuhlolwa nenombolo enganqunyelwe izikhathi kungaba kwenziwe. izibonelo eqaphelekayo zihlanganisa:

• Phonsani uhlamvu lwemali - ke yintfo, noma ukuhlolwa, ukulahlekelwa yokhozi - lo mcimbi.
• Ukudonsa ibhola esikhwameni zifa - test, wabanjwa ebomvu ibhola - lo mcimbi nokunye.

Izibonelo ezinjalo kungaba esingenamkhawulo, kodwa, ngokuvamile, kumelwe ziqondwe. Ngamafuphi futhi nokumisa i-lwazi aluthola ngezenzakalo itafula. okungenzeka theory izifundo kuphela uhlobo yokugcina wonke wethulwa.

imithetho

Okungenzeka theory - isayensi etadisha kungenzeka ukulahlekelwa yinoma yimuphi umcimbi. Njengomhlaba abanye, it has imithetho. Imithetho elandelayo okungenzeka theory:

• Kuhlanganiswe ukulandelanisa lokwehlukile okungahleliwe.
• Umthetho izinombolo ezinkulu.

Lapho kubalwa kungenzeka eziyinkimbinkimbi ingasetshenziswa ngezenzakalo eziyinkimbinkimbi ezilula ukufeza imiphumela lula futhi ngokushesha indlela. Kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi imithetho okungenzeka theory kungenziwa kalula wafakazela ngosizo lwamanye theorems. Siphakamisa ukuqala ngijwayele umthetho wokuqala.

Kuhlanganiswe ukulandelanisa lokwehlukile okungahleliwe

Qaphela ukuthi tekuhlangana izinhlobo eziningana:

• Kulandzelana kwalokucuketfwe lokuhleliwe eziguquguqukayo okungahleliwe Kuhlangana e okungenzeka.
• Cishe akunakwenzeka.
• RMS Kuhlangana.
• Kuhlangana e wokusabalalisa.

Ngakho, on the fly, kunzima kakhulu yokuqonda lokho okushiwo yinkulumo. Nazi izincazelo azosiza ukuqonda isihloko. Ukuze uqale nge look lokuqala. Ukulandelana libizwa Kuhlangana e ecatshangelwayo, uma isimo elandelayo: n osondela infinity, inombolo ezazifunwa ukulandelana mkhulu kunoziro futhi eduze iyunithi.

Yiya umbono olandelayo, cishe ngokuqinisekile. Bathi ukulandelana converges cishe nakanjani kwenombolo engahleliwe nge n elusa infinity, futhi R, elusa value eduze ubunye.

Uhlobo elilandelayo - a convergence RMS. Uma usebenzisa Kuhlangana SC-kokuzwa Vector izinqubo okungahleliwe kunciphisa ekutadisheni izinqubo okungahleliwe Ukudidiyela.

Ingabe uhlobo lokugcina, ake sihlole kafushane futhi ukuya ngqo ikhambi izinkinga. Kuhlangana ukusatshalaliswa has elinye igama - "buthakathaka", bese uchaza ukuthi kungani. Kuhlangana engaqinile - iyona Kuhlanganiswe imisebenzi ukusatshalaliswa nhlobo amaphuzu phambili umsebenzi umkhawulo wokusabalalisa.

Qiniseka ukugcina isithembiso: Kuhlangana ababuthakathaka kuhlukile zonke lezi zindlela osekukhulunywe ukuthi kwenombolo engahleliwe akachaziwe ku isikhala okungenzeka. Lokhu kungenzeka ngoba isimo is kwakhiwa kuphela usebenzisa ukusatshalaliswa imisebenzi.

Umthetho izinombolo ezinkulu

umsizi Elikhulu ubufakazi umthetho kuyoba theorems of okungenzeka theory, njenge:

• ukungalingani Chebyshev.
• ifayela echaza ifomu Chebyshev sika.
• Generalized Chebyshev theorem.
• Markov theorem.

Uma sicabanga ngazo zonke lezi theorems ke udaba kungathatha amashumi amaningana amashidi. Sine umsebenzi oyinhloko - ukusetshenziswa okungenzeka theory practice. Sikunikeza manje futhi ukukwenza. Kodwa ngaphambi kokuba sicabangele axioms of okungenzeka theory, zingabantu abalingani ukhiye ekuxazululeni izinkinga.

axioms

Kusukela kuqala, sesibonile, lapho ukhuluma mayelana nomcimbi engenakwenzeka. Masikhumbule: ematfuba umcimbi engenakwenzeka zero. Isibonelo sanikeza ocacile kakhulu futhi ongasoze: eqhweni wawela i lokushisa air degrees amathathu Celsius.

Eyesibili kanje: umcimbi othile kwenzeka nge okungenzeka ubunye. Manje sizokubonisa kodwa kungani pho kulotshwe ngosizo ulimi zezibalo: P (B) = 1.

Okwesithathu: Umcimbi okungahleliwe kungenzeka noma cha, kodwa kungenzeka uhlale ziyahlukahluka kusuka zero komunye. I eduze kangakanani nobunye, asele; uma inani esondele ku-zero, ematfuba sincane kakhulu. Sibhala le ngolimi zezibalo: 0

Cabanga zokugcina, Axiom wesine, okungukuthi: isamba ematfuba izenzakalo ezimbili kulingana isamba kwenzeke yabo. Bhala imigomo zezibalo: P (A + B) = P (A) + P (B).

I axioms of okungenzeka theory - ke lingumthetho elula ukuthi ngeke kube nzima ukukhumbula. Ake sizame ukuxazulula ezinye izinkinga, ngokusekelwe olwazini nasekuqondeni esingilitholile.

ithikithi lottery

Okokuqala, cabanga ngesibonelo elula - lottery. Zicabange wena wathenga ithikithi lottery sikufisela inhlanhla. Uyini okungenzeka ukuthi uyosibonisa ruble okungenani amabili? ukuzungeza Ubude ebandakanyeke ayizinkulungwane amathikithi, omunye ephethe umklomelo ruble anamakhulu mahlanu, ruble neshumi, ruble amabili namashumi ayisihlanu, nabayikhulu - ezinhlanu. Umsebenzi inkolelo-mbono yokuziphendukela okungenzeka esekelwe kanjani ukuthola indlela inhlanhla. Manje ndawonye sihlaziya isinqumo ngaphezu umbono Imisebenzi.

Uma thina selisho ngu Umklomelo ruble anamakhulu mahlanu, bese ematfuba A ilingana 0,001. Sazi kanjani uthole? Vele kudingeka inani amathikithi "lucky" ihlukaniswe ngenani Imininingwane (kulesi simo: 1/1000).

Ngo - nzuzo ruble eziyikhulu, ematfuba kuyoba ulingana 0.01. Manje thina senzé ngendlela efanayo njengoba isinyathelo sokugcina (10/1000)

C - kunomvuzo ruble amabili. Thola amathuba, ke ilingana 0.05.

Ezinye izindaba zika-amathikithi Asibona anentshisekelo, njengoba umklomelo ngemali yabo ingaphansi kuka- elicacisiwe isimo. Sebenzisa Axiom wesine: Ematfuba ngokuwina ruble okungenani amabili kuyinto P (A) + P (B) + P (C). I P incwadi isho Amathuba umsuka umcimbi, thina e izinyathelo zangaphambilini kakade wabafumana. It uhlala kuphela walala idatha ezidingekayo, impendulo sithola 0,061. Le nombolo kuyoba impendulo yombuzo othi kwemisebenzi.

emphemeni of Cards

Izinkinga okungenzeka theory, kukhona eziyinkimbinkimbi ngokwengeziwe, isibonelo, ukuthatha umsebenzi olandelayo. Ngaphambi ngakuvunulisa amakhadi amathathu nesithupha. Umsebenti wakho - ukudweba amakhadi ezimbili zilandelana, ngaphandle ukuxuba inqwaba, amakhadi lokuqala nelesibili kumele kube Aces, amasudi azinandaba.

Ukuze uqale, thola amathuba ukuthi ikhadi sokuqala ace, lokhu hlukanisa imali yazo ngo ezine amathathu nesithupha. Sigcine ngakuwe. Sithola ikhadi yesibili ace nge ematfuba lamakhulu amathathu lamatshumi amathathu futhi yesihlanu. Amathuba umcimbi yesibili incike lapho ikhadi sidonsa owokuqala, sinesithakazelo kwesikwenzayo, kwaba ace noma cha. Kule kusobala ukuthi kwenzeka incike A. umcimbi

Isinyathelo esilandelayo sithola amathuba ukuqaliswa kanyekanye, okungukuthi, bande A no B. umsebenzi wabo ngendlela elandelayo: ematfuba omunye umcimbi siphindwe okungenzeka okunemibandela lomunye, esibala, zikwenze uzitshele ukuthi umcimbi wokuqala eyenzekile, ie, ikhadi lokuqala sidonsa ace.

Ukuze ube zonke kucacile, nika igama elithi isici ezifana ematfuba okunemibandela umcimbi. Kulinganiselwa ngu uzitshela ukuthi umcimbi A okwenzekile. It ibalwa kanje: P (B / A).

Sidlulisa ikhambi lenkinga yethu: P (A _* B) = P (A) _* P (B / A) noma P (A _* B) = P (B) _* P (A / B). Amathuba kuyinto _{(4/36) * ((3/35)} / (4/36) ibalwa ukuqoqa kuya wokuhamba eliseduze Sine: .. _{0,11 * (0,09 / 0,11) =} 0,11 * 0 , 82 = 0.09. Amathuba sizithatha out Aces ezimbili zilandelana ilingana kumakhulukhulu ayisishiyagalolunye. Inani lincane kakhulu, kusobala ukuthi ematfuba umcimbi nesenzakalo liphansi kakhulu.

Igumbi ukhohlwe

Sinikeza ukwenza ezinye izinketho ngaphezulu imisebenzi ukuthi study imfundiso yokuziphendukela okungenzeka. Izibonelo izixazululo of abanye babangcwele ozibone kulesi sihloko, zama ukuxazulula inkinga elandelayo: Umfana ukhohlwe inombolo yefoni idijithi yokugcina komngane wakhe, kodwa kusukela ucingo kwakubaluleke kakhulu, kusukela ngaleso sikhathi zaqala pick up badedelane. Sidinga kubalwe kulo okungenzeka ukuthi angasiqamba athini akukho kuka kathathu. ikhambi elula yenkinga, uma wazi imithetho, imithetho kanye axioms of okungenzeka theory.

Ngaphambi ubona isixazululo, zama ukuxazulula bebodwa. Siyazi ukuthi lesi sibalo yokugcina kungenzeka kusuka zero kuya eziyisishiyagalolunye, kube ingqikithi yamanani eziyishumi. Okungenzeka isikolo obudingekayo 1/10.

Okulandelayo kudingeka sicabangele okukhethwa kukho umsuka izenzakalo, ake sithi umfana ukuyichaza ilungelo futhi ngeke ilungelo, ematfuba izenzakalo ezinjalo ilingana 1/10. Eyesibili inketho: owokuqala ucingo ukushelela, kanti futhi nanjengento ezothola yesibili. Thina ukubala ematfuba izenzakalo ezifana: 9/10 iphindwe 1/9 ekugcineni sithola njengoba 1/10. Inketho lwesithathu: ucingo lokuqala nelesibili, ekugcineni kwahlaluka ukuthi ikheli elingalungile, kuphela umfana wesithathu kwaba wayefuna lapho. Bala ematfuba izenzakalo ezifana: 9/10 iphindwe 8/9 futhi 1/8, sithola ngenxa 1/10. ongakhetha Okunye isimo inkinga asinasithakazelo, lokhu uhlala kithi, lapho ingacamelisa khona miphumela, ekugcineni siba 3/10. Impendulo: Amathuba esingalotshwa umfana ayeliqamba izikhathi abangeqile kwabathathu, ilingana 0.3.

Emakhadi lanetinombolo

Ngaphambi amakhadi eziyisishiyagalolunye, ngamunye okulotshiwe inombolo eyodwa kuya eziyisishiyagalolunye, izinombolo kungukuthi eziphindaphindiwe. Bafaka ebhokisini bese uhlanganise kahle. Udinga kubalwe kulo okungenzeka ukuthi

• iphuma i ngisho inombolo;
• a-idijithi ezimbili.

Ngaphambi kokuqhubeka isinqumo liyasho ukuthi m - inombolo amacala yimpumelelo, futhi n - inombolo inani lokukhethwa kukho. Masithole ematfuba ukuthi inombolo ngisho. Akunzima ukubala ukuthi ngisho izinombolo ezine, futhi kuba m wethu, zonke izinketho ayisishiyagalolunye kungenzeka, okungukuthi, m = 9. Khona-ke ematfuba ilingana 0,44 noma 4/9.

Sibheka esimweni sesibili, inani okuhlukile eziyisishiyagalolunye, futhi umphumela yimpumelelo akukwazi nhlobo, okungukuthi, m zero. Amathuba ukuthi ikhadi side lizoqukatha inombolo idijithi ezimbili, njengoba zero.