A imodeli stochastic komnotho. onobuhle Deterministic futhi stochastic

Imodeli stochastic uchaza isimo lapho ukungaqiniseki likhona. Ngamanye amazwi, inqubo libhekene ngezinga elithile randomness. Isiphawulo kakhulu "stochastic" lisuselwe kwelesiLatini elithi "Ukuqagela." Ngenxa yokungaqiniseki isici esiyinhloko zokuphila kwansuku zonke, isibonelo esinjalo angachaza lutho.

Nokho, ngaso sonke isikhathi sifuna ukuyisebenzisa, uzothola imiphumela ehlukile. Ngakho-ke livame ukusetshenziswa onobuhle deterministic. Nakuba bengezona eduze isimo sangempela eziyimbangela yalokhu, kodwa ngaso sonke isikhathi ukunikeza umphumela ofanayo futhi kungaba lula ukuqonda isimo, lula-ke, ngokwethula i zibalo eziyinkimbinkimbi zezibalo.

imphawu letibalulekile

imodeli Stochastic njalo kuhlanganisa eziguquguqukayo eyodwa noma ngaphezulu okungahleliwe. Ifuna kubonise empilweni yangempela zonke zako. Ngokungafani onobuhle deterministic, stochastic akuhloselwe lula futhi unciphise emagugwini ezaziwayo. Ngakho-ke, ukungaqiniseki sici ayo ayinhloko. onobuhle Stochastic afaneleka ukuchaza lutho, kodwa zonke ukwabelana izici ezilandelayo:

• Noma yimuphi imodeli stochastic ibonisa zonke izici inkinga, ukufunda okuyinto kusungulwa.
• Umphumela ngamunye izenzakalo akwaziwa. Ngakho-ke, imodeli kuhlanganisa okungenzeka. On ukunemba ukubala incike ngokunemba imiphumela jikelele.
• Lezi kwenzeke ingasetshenziswa ukubikezela noma ukuchaza izinqubo ngokwabo.

onobuhle Deterministic futhi stochastic

Kwabanye, ukuphila uchungechunge zenzakalo ezivele zenzeke nje, abanye - inchubo lapho imbangela kubangela umphumela. Eqinisweni, it libhekene ukungaqiniseki, kodwa ngaso sonke isikhathi futhi yonke indawo. Ngakho-ke ngesinye isikhathi kunzima ukuthola umehluko ocacile phakathi stochastic futhi onobuhle deterministic. I kwenzeke kukhona inkomba ngempela subjective.

Ngokwesibonelo, cabanga bephonsa uhlamvu. Uma uthi nhlá, kubonakala sengathi izinto amathuba ukuthi uwela "imisila", 50%. Ngakho-ke kubalulekile ukuba usebenzise imodeli deterministic. Nokho, iqiniso liwukuthi kuxhomeke kakhulu ezinyathelweni dexterity wabadlali nepheleleyo sekulinganisa zemali. Lokhu kusho ukuthi kudingeka usebenzise imodeli stochastic. Njalo hlala une-ongakhetha ukuthi asazi. Ekuphileni okungokoqobo, isizathu uhlale phetho izimbangela, kodwa kukhona futhi ngezinga yokungaqiniseki. Kumelwe ukhethe phakathi esebenzisa onobuhle deterministic futhi stochastic incike kulokho esikwazi abazimisele ukudela - ukuhlaziywa elula noma enengqondo.

Ngo chaos theory

Muva nje, nomqondo okubizwa imodeli stochastic, isibe esilufifi nakakhulu. Lokhu kungenxa ukuthuthukiswa okubizwa ngokuthi chaos theory. Lichaza imodeli deterministic ukuthi zingaba nemiphumela ehlukene nge ushintsho oluncane ku imingcele kokuqala. Lokhu kufana isingeniso yokungaqiniseki ku-akhawunti. Ososayensi abaningi ngisho kuvunywe ukuthi lo isiyi-imodeli stochastic.

Elisabeth Breyer wachaza esasile zonke ngokusebenzisa imifanekiso senkondlo. Wabhala: "Le komhosha, eceleni kwenhliziyo eshayayo, umqedazwe ingxibongo, ikholomu ekuphumeni intuthu - konke lokhu isibonelo into ashukumisayo okuyinto, njengoba kubonakala, ngezinye izikhathi libhekene randomness. Nokho, empeleni, izinqubo ezinjalo zihlale kuncike ngendlela ethile, lapho ososayensi nonjiniyela ukuthi usanda kuqala baqonde. Lokhu kubizwa ngokuthi nezinxushunxushu deterministic ezaziwayo. " Imfundiso entsha umsindo ozwakalayo kakhulu, ososayensi abaningi namuhla nabasekeli baso. Nokho, namanje kancane athuthukile, futhi kunzima ngempela ukukusebenzisa izibalo kwezibalo. Ngakho ngokuvamile isetshenziswa stochastic noma onobuhle deterministic.

isakhiwo

Stochastic imodeli zezibalo iqala ukukhethwa imicimbi aphansi isikhala. Ngakho izibalo okukhulunywe uhlu imiphumela kungenzeka yenqubo ifundelwe noma umcimbi. Khona-ke umcwaningi inquma ematfuba ngayinye izenzakalo aphansi. Lokhu ngokuvamile kwenziwa ngesisekelo indlela ethize.

Nokho, ematfuba namanje ipharamitha kunalokho subjective. Umcwaningi ke ukuthi yiziphi izenzakalo Sinesithakazelo esikhulu kunazo zonke yokuxazulula inkinga. Ngemva kwalokho, wamane ichaza ukuthembeka kwabo.

Ngokwesibonelo

Cabanga inqubo umfuziselo silula stochastic. Ake sithi siphonsa idayisi. Uma umphumela uba 'nesithupha' noma "omunye", inzuzo yethu dollar ayishumi. Inqubo wokwakha imodeli stochastic kulokhu kuyoba kanje:

• Sichaza isikhala imicimbi aphansi. Ngo cube izinhlangothi eziyisithupha, ukuze bakwazi fall out "omunye", "ababili", "ezintathu", "ezine", "ayisihlanu" 'nesithupha'.
• Amathuba umphumela ngamunye ilingana 1/6, Nokho kuningi kangakanani esesikwazi waphonsa idayisi.
• Manje ke, kudingeka sithole imiphumela isithakazelo. Lokhu ukulahlekelwa onqenqemeni nge isibalo "isithupha" noma "umuntu".
• Ekugcineni, singakwazi ukuthola ematfuba umcimbi kufanele sibe nesithakazelo. Kuyinto 1/3. Thina fingqa ematfuba isithakazelo kithi kokubili izenzakalo aphansi: 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6 = 1/3.

Umqondo futhi umphumela

ukumodeliswa Stochastic ngokuvamile sisetshenziswa ukugembula. Kodwa lubaluleke e ukubikezela kwezomnotho, njengoba uvumele lishonile kunesikhumba deterministic, ukuqonda isimo. onobuhle Stochastic kwezomnotho avame ukusetshenziswa lapho senza izinqumo zokutshala izimali. Bavumela ukuba wenze ezizathwini mayelana nenzuzo kokutshalwa kwezimali ezimpahleni noma amaqembu athile.

Modeling kwenza ezezimali ngendlela ephumelela kakhudlwana. Ngosizo zimali kanye abahwebi yokwandisa ukusatshalaliswa izimpahla zalo. Ukusebenzisa stochastic ukumodeliswa njalo ine inzuzo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Kwezinye izimboni, zokwenqaba noma ukungakwazi ukusebenzisa kungaholela ngisho ucabanga ibhizinisi. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi empilweni yangempela avele ongakhetha entsha ebalulekile nsuku zonke, futhi uma kungukuthi kunakwe, ke kungaba yingozi.