Model Gordon ifomula ukubala isibonelo

Esikhathini sphere utshalomali kukhona impela eningi ngezindlela ezahlukene ukubala imiphumela ethinta ezomnotho. Ezinye zazo ezihlobene izibopho kahulumeni, abanye bazama ukuthola izici ezihlukahlukene izinkampani ezahlukene, belinganisa sikhalo sabo. Abanye ahlinzekwa njengendlela ukuhlolwa ongokoqobo ngokulinganiselwa ukubaluleka amafa. Yiqiniso, zikhona namanje eziningi imingcele engeziwe okungatholakala wanezela lapha, kodwa lokhu kamuva ngandlela-thile. Manje Article ngabomvu ngamunye umbuzo othi: siyini model of Gordon? Isetshenziswa lokho? Lokho kulingisa yini umphumela ebonisa, futhi kanjani humusha ke? Ukuze amanye amafomula ukuthi ukubala?

Lokho okubizwa ngokuthi model of Gordon?

Gordon imodeli - ukushintshashintsha idividendi Isaphulelo imodeli, esetshenziswa ukubala intengo yamasheya noma ibhizinisi. Ukusetshenziswa Its eyinhloko itholakala kulesi sibalo ukubaluleka izinkampani ezingenziwanga kucashunwe exchange isitokwe futhi okuyinto okunzima ukulinganisa namanye amathuluzi kwezomnotho. Ungase futhi uthole igama esinwebiwe - imodeli Gordon ukukhula.

Iyiphi inqubo elungiselelwe?

Futhi lokho, eqinisweni, akwazi ezinye uhlobo isimo? Impela wamane - ngosizo wezibalo. Kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi imodeli Gordon kungadalwa yizinto eziningi ezimweni, kuleso simo kuyothonya okuqukethwe ifomula. Kodwa qiniseka ukuthi umbono walokho-ke ngeke kwenziwe, ukuqaqa sipho ngempela kwesibalo ethandwa esidalelwe idividendi izinkokhelo, okuzoba ngonyaka ozayo ngesimo okwandisa usayizi ukukhula isilinganiso sabo isilinganiso. Ngakho Gordon imodeli ifomula:

• DSC = (x DVTP (STRD +1)) + SATM STRD.

Incazelo izifinyezo simiswe ngalendlela lelandzelako:

1. DSK - buyela nokulingana kule nkampani.
2. DVTP - izinzuzo kwesikhathi lwamanje.
3. STRD - izinga isilinganiso sokukhula izinzuzo.
4. SATM - share intengo okwamanje, okuyinto ihlola imodeli Gordon.

Ngokwesibonelo ukubala

Modeling ngesandla kunalokho eziyinkinga bese isikhathi. Ngakho-ke, umthombo asizayo isetshenziswa izinto eziningi ezinkulu, efana ne-Excel. Ake sithi umuntu othile "Gazprom" share kuwufanele ruble 150,4. Ungabona isibonelo ukubala ngezansi. Formula, okwakubekelwa kubhekwe:

1. ukubuya Kulindeleke ngomhla ukwabelana = B20 x (1 + D7): E7 + D7.
2. I-avareji yonyaka idividendi ukukhula rate = (B20: B7) ^ (1: 13) - 1.

Kungani udinga khona?

Gordon imodeli kungathatha ukuqinisekisa ukuthuthukiswa kokuhlaziywa nzima, phakathi ukuhlela tax, kanye ngesikhathi ukwabelana kokuhlaziywa kokuba ukukhula umfaniswano idividendi emakethe yamasheya. Futhi, ukusetshenziswa ngempumelelo kulezi zimo ezilandelayo:

1. Ukwanda yokuthengisa ivolumu emakethe.
2. Kukhona benamanzi izinto zokusetshenziswa nezinto zethu ezibonakalayo ezidingekayo ukuze ukukhiqizwa.
3. ubuchwepheshe osetshenziswayo futhi imishini kuphumelela kakhulu, futhi esikhundleni sabo akulindelekile kule minyaka embalwa ezayo, noma iziqiniseko ezokwenza olwesimanje nge ubuchwepheshe bamuva esikhathini esizayo esiseduze.
4. Le nkampani ine iMali ukuthi kungenziwa iqondiswe ngcono yayo.
5. Kukhona isimo somnotho esitebeleni.

Kumele unolwazi ukuthi umhlahlo idividendi ngokwayo kuyinselele kakhulu ngenxa khona izingozi ehlukahlukene kwezomnotho (olutholakalayo njalo, ngisho noma ngaphambi ukuthi inkampani luhlolokulinganisa wathola impendulo ezinhle mayelana ukuzinza ibhizinisi). Ngakho, kukhona abaningana izindlela kulinganiswa usayizi izinkokhelo ezibekwe ukwenza konke ngokunembe ngangokunokwenzeka. kwezithibelo ezithile nazo eziphoqelelwe. Ngakho, imodeli Gordon isetshenziswa ngesisekelo ukuthi kuyoba ngendlela engaguquguquki ukukhula rate of idividendi izinkokhelo. By endleleni, le ngxenye semnotfo ethize ukuze ukuhlolwa yayo ezinye izindlela akunakwenzeka.

I engavamile lokhu model

Yini izici zalesi imodeli anganikeza? The main kanye Into ezithakazelisayo kakhulu ukuthi uma izimo ezithile zifeziwe, ke kwesibalo iba okulingana ngokugcwele ifomula jikelele ehlisiwe cash flow amayunithi. Ngakho, ukuze sithole Inani lamanje le nokulingana ibhizinisi, kubalulekile ukuthi zonke kulindeleke nokuphuma kwemali kwesikhathi isithakazelo yahlukaniswa umehluko ephakama phakathi izinga isaphulelo kanye izinga lokukhula. Lapha kubalulekile ukusho ukuthi uhlelo oluholwa Gordon lokuqala wayebheke isixazululo ukubala inzuzo, ningaqiniseka ukuthi. Ngakho-ke, izibalo idatha lokuqala ngokuthi "imodeli nenzuzo." Kodwa kungakhathaliseki ukuthi iyini, ezothando eboniswe lapha, akuve kuvamile.

By the way, umehluko phakathi kwesilinganiso isaphulelo kanye nokuthathe kwenza izinga lokhula kuyinto evamile ye nosonhlamvukazi. Okuningi ungakwazi ukubala isici (noma i-ratio) isivuno. Ukuze wenze lokhu, iyunithi ehlukaniswa izinga nosonhlamvukazi. Ngakho-ke kunzima aphikisane isitatimende ukuthi Gordon kwesibalo luhambisana ngisho ne imodeli jikelele kokuhlaziywa. Ukuze izibalo ukucacisa ukukhanga imali yebhizinisi kuyisici. Ngenxa yalesi impahla, lapho ebhekisela ezinhlekeleleni imodeli Gordon kuba lula ukwenza ukuhlaziya ulwazi amasheya noma isimo ibhizinisi / inkampani. Ukusebenzisa izibalo etholakala nge amafomula abanjalo bahluke kanjani ukuphatha ibhizinisi ngempumelelo noma ukulinganisa ukubaluleka kwayo. Ungase futhi ngezinye izikhathi uthole ukuthi igama izincwadi kwezomnotho njengoba "imodeli ukukhula".

ukulinganiselwa yokusetshenziswa

Kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi i-zonke izinto zawo ezingcono, imodeli Gordon has a ububanzi sasivumela elinganiselwe ukusetshenziswa. Ngakho, ukwenza iimbalo zibe kuso kuphela lezo zinkampani ukuthi okwamanje ukukhula esitebeleni. Ukuze kahle ukusebenzisa ulwazi, idatha sokunquma nezinga lokukhula kufanele ibhekane olunzulu Ukukhetha inqubo.

ukuwa Ideal ngaphansi Gordon imodeli izinkampani ezingaba ukuziqhayisa ekukhuleni kwayo, okuyinani elilingana ekwandeni okuzisholo emnothweni (noma ube izinga lokukhula esingaphansi ke). Kuyadingeka ukuba libe nenqubomgomo ecacile futhi esibekiwe, okubhekisele izinkokhelo izinzuzo kanye okuyinto izobanjelwa esikhathini esizayo.

isiphetho

Ekuphetheni, thina singaphetha ukubaluleka enikeza amathuluzi kwezomnotho. Kufanele kukhunjulwe ukuthi ikuvumela ukuhlola amabhizinisi kanye nezinkampani angekho ku Ukuhwebelana isitokwe.

Futhi okubaluleke kakhulu indima yalo ebalulekile ekumiseni isimo samanje inhlangano, kanye nenzuzo ezingeni ukuhlela, okuyinto kulindeleke esikhathini esizayo esiseduze. Futhi qiniseka ukuthi acabangele ezingokoqobo lapho kuthanda wena konke ukusetshenziswa. Nazi ezinye amafomula for izikhathi ezahlukene, futhi uma unentshisekelo le timu - bayoba usizo ekuthuthukiseni eyala kwezomnotho ngaphakathi enyuvesi noma ukuzilimaza.